This ASX dividend share is forecast to pay a 9% yield in 2026

This stock could be a cash cow for passive income.

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A man and a woman stand on an external balcony in a dense city environment filled with high rise buildings and commercial properties. The man is pointing up at a high rise building and the woman is looking on.

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ASX dividend shares that offer a high dividend yield can be really attractive for investors wanting passive income. We know that interest rates on savings accounts and term deposits fluctuate and may not always offer as much return.

Now could be the right time to look at ASX shares beaten down because of the current economic backdrop.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) face a difficult situation in periods of higher interest rates as they put pressure on building valuations and also mean higher interest costs, hurting net rental profit.

Growthpoint Properties Australia Ltd (ASX: GOZ) has a portfolio of "high-quality" industrial and office properties across Australia. The company says it invests in existing properties to ensure they meet tenants' needs now and into the future. Let's take a closer look.

Large dividend yield expected

As of November 2023, Growthpoint had an occupancy rate of 94% and a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 5.8 years — "underpinning income to security holders".

The Commsec forecast suggests it could pay a distribution per security of 20.5 cents in FY26. This would be a distribution yield of close to 9%.

I'll also mention that the forecast for FY24 is 19.3 cents per security, a distribution yield of 8.2%.

How much are Growthpoint shares actually worth? It's hard to truly value a property until it goes through a sale process.

The ASX dividend share advised in December 2023 that external valuations had been conducted for around 62% of the group's portfolio. They indicated a decrease of approximately $137.8 million, or 4.7%, on a like-for-like basis compared to 30 June 2023's book values.  

The specific decrease in external valuations of these properties is expected to reduce the net tangible assets (NTA) by 19 cents. But there are other factors that could impact the final NTA. They include internal valuations for the other properties, the value of derivatives, other Growthpoint investments and changes to net debt at the balance date.

At June 2023, the business had an NTA of $4, down 12.3% compared to June 2022.

With the Growthpoint share price at $2.35, it appears to be trading at a large discount.

What's the outlook for these property sectors?

I don't have a crystal ball, nor does management. However, the ASX dividend share does have a high occupancy rate and a compelling WALE.

Growthpoint managing director Timothy Collyer explains:

The group's movement in preliminary draft external valuations reflects the increased cost of capital and higher return expectations from investors. In the industrial market, supply constraints continue to drive strong rental growth, which has largely offset yield expansion.

Office markets are experiencing higher-than-average vacancies, although physical occupancy continues to increase across all markets and is anticipated to improve in 2024 as more businesses implement return-to-office policies.

Despite the lower preliminary draft external valuation of the group's properties, Growthpoint's high-quality portfolio with secure tenants on long leases continues to perform well in terms of occupancy (94%) and WALE (5.8 years).

While the NTA may have more to fall, the Growthpoint share price could be undervalued, making the dividend yield too compelling to miss.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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