Buy this ASX 200 gold share for a 20% return

Bell Potter is feeling bullish about this gold miner right now.

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If you would like some exposure to the gold sector this year, then Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares could be the way to do it.

That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, who believe it could be an ASX 200 gold share to buy right now.

A woman in a business suit sits at her desk with gold bars in each hand while she kisses one bar with her eyes closed. Her desk has another three gold bars stacked in front of her. symbolising the rising Northern Star share price

Image source: Getty Images

What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 gold share?

Bell Potter notes that Gold Road has just released its quarterly update.

Although production came in lower quarter on quarter due to labour availability issues, the broker remains positive and has only trimmed its valuation shortly.

According to the note, it has retained its buy rating with a new price target of $2.05 (down from $2.10 previously). Based on where the gold share currently trades, this implies a potential upside of over 20% for investors in 2024.

Bell Potter believes that the post-update selloff has created a buying opportunity. It explains:

We reduce our TP by 2.4% due to changes to our forecast production. With a TSR of 21.9%, we maintain our Buy recommendation. After reaching a high of $2.04/sh in December on high spot gold prices, GOR sold off with the 4QCY23 production update. At Gruyere, GOR is in the process of commissioning an expanded mining fleet, and crushing upgrades.

Key near-term catalysts for GOR will be how these upgrades flow through to CY24 guidance (expected late January 2024) and subsequent production. We expect the upgrades will enable continued production growth through CY24 and CY25, which we forecast will be supported by a strong gold price environment. GOR owns 19.9% of DEG. CY24 will be an important year for development of DEG's Hemi Gold Project, where it is targeting project construction commencement for late in the year.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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