If you own Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares, you're going to have a big decision to make in a couple of weeks.
On 4 December, shareholders will be asked to vote on the revised takeover proposal from the Brookfield-led consortium of investors and EIG.
The suitors have offered a total cash payment of approximately $9.431 per share.
Alternatively, if that is voted down, there is a backup transaction option of $9.08 per share. That is subject to a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition.
How should you vote on your Origin shares?
Origin's largest shareholder, AustralianSuper, is urging shareholders to vote their shares against the takeover. It believes that investors are being short-changed by Brookfield and EIG. The super fund commented:
AustralianSuper will be voting against the revised proposal for Origin, made public by the company board today, if the board decides to put it to a vote. This latest low-ball offer strengthens AustralianSuper's view that the offer remains substantially below our estimate of Origin's long-term value.
And despite the new proposal including the potential opportunity for institutional shareholders like AustralianSuper to re-invest into the Brookfield-owned Energy Markets business after completion of the scheme, it isn't interested. It adds:
AustralianSuper is resolute the value and future value of Origin is better in the hands of AustralianSuper members and other shareholders than a private equity consortium planning to shortchange them.
Overall, the super fund appears to believe that Origin shares are a great long-term investment option for local investors and that parting ways with them at this level would be unwise. It concludes:
AustralianSuper believes the ongoing energy transition has further enhanced the value of strategic energy transition platforms, such as Origin. AustralianSuper is a long-term investor in the Australian economy and is open to providing capital to assist Origin as it prepares to transition over the coming decades, while delivering on our purpose to help members achieve their best financial position in retirement.
The challenge facing the nation as we work towards net zero by 2050 is not a lack of capital but rather a shortage of good quality investment opportunities.