It hasn't been the best of weeks for share price gains on the ASX or global markets.
Down 0.3% in afternoon trade today, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) has slipped 3.2% since last Friday's closing bell.
Not surprisingly, you'll see plenty of doom and gloom headlines popping up in the financial news.
But those types of bearish calls tend to come out whenever the market hits a rough patch.
Below, we look at why this prominent economist isn't buying into the negative news cycle, instead forecasting share price gains by the end of 2023.
Why ASX investors could be enjoying share price gains
Professor Jeremy Siegel is a senior economist at WisdomTree and emeritus professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
In his weekly newsletter on Monday, Siegel offered an optimistic outlook for the United States economy and the accompanying share price gains he foresees.
Siegel based his case on a number of macroeconomic factors.
Those included:
- Better than expected retail sales, indicating US consumers haven't closed their wallets despite cost of living pressures.
- A strong result from the latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), showing resilient business spending.
- The US labour market remains strong, with only a slight uptick in weekly unemployment claims.
- A large increase in confidence expressed by business leaders.
Writing before this week's decision by the Federal Reserve, Siegel correctly said the Fed would hold rates steady.
While that hasn't resulted in broad share price gains on the ASX or US markets this week, Siegel believes the strong macro indicators in the US economy will provide "positive momentum" for stock markets.
According to Siegel:
The market still has positive momentum and can tilt upward towards the end of the year. I don't see a strong boom but an upward tilt.
I also don't see a major crack in tech stocks' performance until we see their earnings disappoint… Tech stocks had a few tougher days as real yields rose and I expect real yields to remain firm.
As for potential share price gains for dividend stocks, Siegel said, "I like the valuations of dividend stocks more than the valuations of tech-heavy Nasdaq, particularly on a more robust economy."
However, he noted that investors shouldn't ignore the ongoing enthusiasm surrounding AI stocks.
"You can still see the money flowing into tech stocks with the artificial intelligence (AI) narrative dominating enthusiasm," Siegel said.
