Allkem share price can jump 45% even if lithium prices fall: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs believes this lithium share can rise even as prices of the battery making ingredient fall.

| More on:
A young woman lifts her red glasses with one hand as she takes a closer look at news about interest rates rising and one expert's surprising recommendation as to which ASX shares to buy

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Allkem shares are down meaningfully from their highs
  • Goldman Sachs sees this as a buying opportunity
  • Its analysts believe Allkem shares can rise materially even if lithium prices crash

The Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) share price is having a strong session.

In morning trade, the lithium miner's shares are up over 3% to $10.62.

However, despite this, the Allkem share price remains down materially from its record high of $16.75.

Can the Allkem share price keep rising?

The good news is that despite being bearish on lithium prices and forecasting them to pullback significantly next year, Goldman Sachs is very bullish on Allkem's shares.

This is due to its belief that the company's production growth and downstream optionality will keep its earnings strong and offset the pressure caused by lower lithium prices.

According to a note from Monday, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $15.40 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of 45% for investors from current levels over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its production growth, the broker said:

Allkem has one of the best production outlooks in our lithium coverage, with broad-based growth optionality, second only to Mineral Resources on an LCE basis when including downstream hydroxide production on an equity basis. This drives our forecast for the company's equity LCE production growth of >4x by FY27E, supporting earnings rebounding to near current record levels despite the declining lithium price environment.

In addition, the broker highlights that the market is undervaluing its assets. This is despite its competitive brine cost curve position. It adds:

Allkem has the largest lithium metal contained resource base amongst our coverage when factoring in South American brine assets and second largest reserve (excluding Olaroz due to ongoing reserve re-modelling). However, AKE's aggregate resource is trading at a significant discount to peers, despite a competitive brine cost curve position.

All in all, Goldman appears to see recent weakness in the Allkem share price as a great buying opportunity for investors.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Allkem. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

a mine worker holds his phone in one hand and a tablet in the other as he stands in front of heavy machinery at a mine site.
Materials Shares

ASX lithium shares tumble as falling prices hit export values

Here are all the details from a new report released today.

Read more »

A man slumps crankily over his morning coffee as it pours with rain outside.
Materials Shares

Why are Sayona Mining shares getting thumped today?

Should this miner have put its lithium operation on care and maintenance?

Read more »

Three miners stand together at a mine site studying documents with equipment in the background
Materials Shares

BHP shares sink on $60b Anglo American takeover news

The Big Australian could be on the verge of a major acquisition.

Read more »

A man in trendy clothing sits on a bench in a shopping mall looking at his phone with interest and a surprised look on his face.
Materials Shares

Dirt cheap! Why Lynas shares could rise 18%

Bell Potter sees a lot of value in this rare earths miner's shares.

Read more »

A man sits in despair at his computer with his hands either side of his head, staring into the screen with a pained and anguished look on his face, in a home office setting.
Materials Shares

Why Fortescue shares could crash 30%

One leading broker believes this mining giant's shares are severely overvalued.

Read more »

Man holding a calculator with Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Materials Shares

Here's the Pilbara Minerals dividend forecast through to 2028

Let's see what analysts are predicting for this lithium giant's dividends.

Read more »

A man wearing glasses and a white t-shirt pumps his fists in the air looking excited and happy about the rising OBX share price
Materials Shares

Guess which ASX lithium stock is rocketing 15% on big news

Why are investors buying this lithium share on Wednesday?

Read more »

a mine worker holds his phone in one hand and a tablet in the other as he stands in front of heavy machinery at a mine site.
Materials Shares

Mineral Resources share price tumbles amid ongoing lithium price weakness

ASX 200 investors are bidding down the Mineral Resources share price on Wednesday.

Read more »