Is the Qantas share price fully valued following this week's surge?

Can Qantas shares fly even higher?

| More on:
Man sitting in a plane seat works on his laptop.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) share price has continued to ascend on Friday.

In morning trade, the airline operator's shares are up 3% to $5.79.

This means the Qantas share price is now up 12% over the last two trading sessions.

Why is the Qantas share price taking off?

Investors have been scrambling to buy shares this week after Qantas surprised the market with a particularly strong update.

Based on forward bookings, current fuel prices, and latest assumptions about the second quarter, Qantas revealed that it expects underlying profit before tax of between $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion for the first half of FY 2023.

Qantas also advised that its balance sheet was stronger than expected. It now expects its net debt to fall to between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion at 31 December, which is below the bottom of the target range of $3.9 billion.

This update blew away analysts at Citi. They commented:

Almost embarrassingly large beat to us and the market, with QAN expecting a full year's PBT in a half. Quickly looking at passengers travelled in August, interestingly both domestic and international were actually down compared to July (albeit seasonality), implying what we think is a result largely driven by yields. Our back of the envelope suggests yields at a group level were ~35% higher than a couple months ago.

Can its shares keep climbing?

The good news for shareholders is that a number of leading brokers believe the Qantas share price can keep rising from here.

For example, according to a note out of UBS, its analysts have retained their buy rating and lifted their price target on the company's shares to $7.20. This implies further potential upside of 24% for investors.

The team at JP Morgan is even more positive and has retained its overweight rating with an improved price target of $7.50. This suggests potential upside of almost 30% for investors.

Morgan Stanley agrees with JP Morgan and has retained its overweight rating and $7.50 price target.

Finally, over at Citi, its analysts have taken their sell rating off the company's shares and upgraded their recommendation to neutral and lifted their price target to $5.78. This would indicate that Qantas shares are fully valued now. However, as you saw above, Citi has been very wrong with its view on Qantas this year, so it may not be the most reliable recommendation at this point.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

A man sits in deep thought with a pen held to his lips as he ponders his computer screen with a laptop open next to him on his desk in a home office environment.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

happy investor, share price rise, increase, up
Broker Notes

These ASX 200 shares could rise 15% to 50%

Analysts think these shares can rise strongly from where they trade today.

Read more »

a man peers through a broken brick wall to see grey clouds gathering beyond it
Share Market News

Why this smashed ASX 200 share is a fundie's top value pick

It's an ASX consumer discretionary stock that has lost 40% of its value over the past year.

Read more »

Happy man working on his laptop.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her chin resting on her hand as she contemplates her next potential investment.
Resources Shares

Up 51% from their 52-week low, is it too late to buy Mineral Resources shares?

Mineral Resources has been on a tear since mid-January. Do these top brokers think it's too late to buy?

Read more »

A laughing woman pushes her friend, who has her arms outstretched, in a supermarket trolley.
Retail Shares

Goldman says these 6 ASX retail shares are a buying opportunity

The latest retail trading data was historically weak, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Read more »

Research, collaboration and doctors working digital tablet, analysis and discussion of innovation cancer treatment. Healthcare, teamwork and planning by experts sharing idea and strategy for surgery.
Healthcare Shares

Buy, hold or sell these 3 ASX 200 healthcare shares: Experts

These experts reveal their calls on CSL, Resmed and Sonic Healthcare shares today.

Read more »

A smiling boy holds a toy plane aloft while a girl watches on from a car near an airport runway.
Broker Notes

Buy one, sell the other: Goldman's verdict on these 2 ASX 200 travel shares

The broker says one of these stocks could deliver 30% share price growth in just one year.

Read more »