What's next in the Elon Musk and Twitter saga?

If Musk isn't buying Twitter, why should you?

| More on:
young woman sitting cross legged with large tub of popcorn and surprised facial expression

Image Source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

One of the more dramatic stories of 2022 is closing -- Elon Musk is terminating his deal to buy Twitter (NYSE: TWTR). News of this sent Twitter's stock about 6% higher after hours to $34, still well short of the $54.20 per share Musk was offering.

While Musk may be through, is this an opportunity for investors to take a position in Twitter? After all, Twitter is one of the most popular social media companies.

Shaky user data

First, it may be good to understand why Musk terminated the deal. The biggest sticking point for the deal was Twitter's refusal to provide complete data on fake or spam bots. This data is critical, as it determines how many of its users can be monetized. Most of Twitter's revenue is derived from advertising (93% during the first quarter). If Twitter can't guarantee that most ad viewers are humans, then the price companies are willing to spend on ads is substantially reduced.

Twitter has long claimed the number of bots is less than 5% of total users, but Musk wanted to confirm those numbers for himself.

In the first quarter, Twitter reported monetizable daily active users (mDAU) of 229 million. However, they also had to revise previously stated mDAUs for the last five quarters due to an error in how they were calculated. This mistake instils less confidence in management's ability to report mDAUs accurately. 

Throw in their refusal to provide Musk with the data he wants, and it makes investors wonder what they can trust.

Twitter fires back

Twitter's management isn't just going to let a $54.20 per share offer walk away (especially when there's a $1 billion breakup fee Musk is claiming he wouldn't need to pay). It responded by issuing a letter that claimed Twitter had not violated any of the obligations under its agreement. It also stated that Musk and his party "knowingly" and "willingly" breached the terms of the initial contract.

This breakup will get ugly and will likely end up in court.

While not legally required to do so, the letter did not disclose if Twitter had actually given Musk the user data he was requesting. Whether this was intentionally left off or not, it does leave outsiders wondering what is really going on.

What's next?

As mentioned above, this acquisition will likely end up in court. This battle would incur significant legal fees and consumer time from Musk and Twitter executives. A few ways it could shake out:

  • Musk (or Twitter) pays the $1 billion breakup fee, and each entity goes its separate ways without the long, drawn-out court battle.
  • The courts force Twitter to disclose the data Musk wants, which still leaves the question open if management was truthful or not, leaving Musk a door to still back away.
  • The courts side with Twitter, and Musk would need to decide if he wants to continue his acquisition.

None of these options are ideal, and with the growing animosity between the two parties, each may want to prove that they are right.

However, with the stock now trading well below its buyout price, is this a prime opportunity to make an even larger arbitrage gain?

Should you use this opportunity to buy Twitter stock?

Unlike user data, financials are much easier to audit. However, they also aren't much better.

In Q1, revenue rose 16% YOY (year-over-year) to $1.2 billion. But, expenses rose faster at a 35% clip. This increase was primarily driven by an astounding 60% increase in stock-based compensation, diluting shareholders.

Twitter was profitable in the quarter, but only because it sold MoPub (a mobile ad publishing platform) for $1.05 billion. Without that, it would have lost about $128 million in the quarter.

However, many companies are likely reading the termination letter sent by Musk and noting Twitter's refusal to provide relevant user data. This refusal will likely have long-term damaging effects on Twitter's advertising brand. If management can't provide a suitor the data he needs to close a deal, what makes prospective customers believe the 5% spam account figure is accurate?

As an investor, I don't have a lot of faith in management. This sentiment was echoed by Musk and former CEO and co-founder Jack Dorsey. So if these two have no confidence, why would I?

There are plenty of better investments available in the market, and I think investors should appreciate the entertainment value of this acquisition more than the potential investment value.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Keithen Drury has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Twitter. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on International Stock News

A male party goer sits wearing a party hat and with a party blower in his mouth amid a bunch of balloons with a sad, serious look on his face as though the party is over or a celebration has fallen flat.
International Stock News

What snapped the S&P 500 winning streak last night?

The S&P 500 almost made October a winner, but fell at the final hurdle.

Read more »

Man going down a red arrow, symbolising a sliding share price.
International Stock News

Why Nvidia stock is sinking today

Investors were spooked by economic data and the ambitions of a deep-pocketed rival.

Read more »

Rede arrow on a stock market chart going down.
International Stock News

Why Microsoft stock is sinking today

Microsoft just beat quarterly earnings estimates. So why is the stock falling?

Read more »

US economy and sharemarket with piggy bank
Share Market News

Here's why Goldman Sachs sees a decade of lower returns ahead for US shares

Aussie investors have placed a lot of faith in US shares this year.

Read more »

ETF written in gold with dollar signs on coin.
ETFs

Here's why the iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV) flew 6% higher in October

Investors are very keen on US shares at the moment.

Read more »

Man pumping petrol
International Stock News

Where will Tesla shares be in 10 years?

This historically booming stock might not live up to the hype.

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her hand to her mouth and a contemplative smile on her face as she reads about the performance of Allkem shares on her computer
International Stock News

46% of Nvidia's revenue came from 4 mystery customers last quarter

Nvidia's incredible growth is increasingly reliant on just a handful of customers.

Read more »

A young girl looks up and balances a pencil on her nose, while thinking about a decision she has to make.
International Stock News

Should you buy Nvidia stock before November 20?

History could repeat itself with Nvidia's upcoming quarterly update.

Read more »