Could a second ASX market crash be coming to the ASX?
The positive sentiment that has defined the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and the broader ASX markets since late March looks in danger. Friday saw a significant market sell-off that took the ASX 200 below 6,000 points and erased a substantial amount of gains made in June so far.
It followed the US markets shedding more than 6% in trading on Thursday night (our time).
So is this it for ASX shares? Can we expect another coronavirus crash to hit our portfolios over the next few weeks?
Why the ASX 200 has been hitting the roof
Over the past 2 months, the positive sentiment that the ASX has been enjoying has come from 2 sources in my view. The first is the success Australia (and New Zealand to its credit) has had in dealing with the coronavirus. Compared with the United States and the United Kingdom, Australia has managed to keep the coronavirus infection rate extremely low. In turn, this has allowed the easing of economic restrictions and social movement.
This is obviously great news for the economy.
The second has been a spillover of goodwill from the US markets. Despite the country's more muted success in containing the virus, US markets have been on a tear over the past 2 months, rising by more than the ASX 200. It's rather unclear exactly why the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 have been on such an enthusiastic run. I suspect it has a lot to do with the US Federal Reserve and its unprecedented injection of cash into US financial markets.
Like it or not, the ASX's fate is bound to that of the US markets – we ride or die together at the end of the day.
Is another ASX market crash coming?
I think the moves we saw on Friday were induced by the US. The Dow Jones saw a massive ~6% slump on Thursday night after the Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell issued a rather bearish outlook for the US economy for the rest of the year. According to reporting in the Australian Financial Review, this included a prediction from Powell that the US unemployment rate will still be above 10% by the time the US elections come around in early November.
If this turns out to be the case, I think it's almost certain that the US markets won't continue their recent run. Markets have (in my opinion) been assuming that the recovery from the coronavirus slump will be swift and painless – a sharp 'V' if you will. If anything else eventuates, markets will have to adjust accordingly (which may involve a crash).
I would be a fool (and not the good kind) to say that we are heading for another ASX market crash. But I'm certainly not ruling it out. I think investors should be very cautious and prepared going forward. We might see further highs from here, to be sure. But I think there's more than an equal chance we might not.
