How big could the return be with CSL shares in 2024?

Could this biotech company be a market beater in 2024?

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CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) shares have been out of form in 2023.

As things stand, the biotechnology giant's shares are on course to record a decline of 7%.

But according to a note out of Citi, things could be very different next year, with the broker tipping some big returns for investors.

What is Citi saying about CSL shares?

Firstly, let's take a look at the note from last week and see what Citi is saying about the company.

According to the note, the broker attended the virtual Plasma-Derived Therapies investor event of rival Takeda.

Pleasingly, it came away from the event feeling very positive about immunoglobulin demand growth despite competition from FcRns. It explains:

We attended Takeda's virtual Plasma-Derived Therapies (PDT) investor event. Takeda is expecting mid-to-high single digit volume growth for Immunoglobulin (Ig) over the medium-term despite the competition from FcRns – this is in-line with CSL's expectations and our forecasts. Takeda anticipates the impact of anti-FcRn to be limited to <10% of total IG market.

Citi also highlights that Takeda's plan to expand its manufacturing capacity demonstrates its confidence in demand remaining very strong. It adds:

Takeda disclosed for the first time its plans to expand manufacturing capacity by 50% over the next 5 years, a sign of its positive outlook for Ig demand. Takeda PDT margins improved in 1H23 (numbers undisclosed) and are expected to be in-line with group level (OPM ~30%) over the "mid to long term".

But what about returns?

Citi has retained its buy rating and $325.00 price target on CSL's shares.

Based on its current share price of $266.92, this implies a potential upside of ~22% for investors over the next 12 months.

And with the broker expecting a ~1.5% dividend yield in FY 2024, the total return stretches to approximately 23.5%.

If Citi is on the money with its recommendations, a $10,000 investment would turn into approximately $12,350 in 2024.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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