If I invest $10,000 in Pilbara Minerals shares, how much passive income will I receive?

Have the lithium stock's dividends already peaked?

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Those invested in Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares were no doubt overjoyed earlier this year when the lithium favourite finally provided shareholders with passive income.

The company was officially added to the long list of S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) materials stocks raking in the sort of cash flow that allows them to hand out dividends.

It's still early days for the newly crowned passive income stock. Hence, shareholders and would-be investors are likely wondering what the future might hold for the lithium producer's dividends.

With that in mind, let's dive into how much passive income Pilbara Minerals shares are expected to provide in near future.

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How much passive income could Pilbara Minerals shares provide?

Say you're sitting on a stack of cash piled $10,000 high with plans to invest the lot in Pilbara Minerals shares.

You're likely on track to walk away with 2,004 stocks, based on its current share price – $4.99.

If you held such a parcel prior to Pilbara Minerals' maiden ex-dividend date – 2 March – you would have already realised $222.44 of passive income from your shares. The company paid a fully franked, 11-cent per share dividend for the first half.

But its next dividend might not be so fruitful, according to brokers.

Morgans tips the company to pay 15 cents over the course of financial year 2023, as my Fool colleague James reports.

That implies a 4-cent final dividend – or a total of $80.16 for our figurative investor.

Goldman Sachs is more optimistic, however.

It forecasts Pilbara Minerals will provide 22.1 cents per share for financial year 2023.

That means another 11-cent dividend could be on the cards for later this year.

Based on its current share price, that could see the lithium stock trading with a 4.43% dividend yield.

But both brokers are sceptical on whether Pilbara Minerals shares can continue providing such passive income.

Morgans expects the company to offer 9 cents per share next financial year, while Goldman Sachs tips its offerings to be cut to 12.8 cents.

At that rate, our $10,000 investment could generate between $180.36 and $256.51 of dividend income next fiscal year.

What about capital gains?

Looking beyond passive income, however, the respective brokers offer varied forecasts for the Pilbara Minerals share price.

Morgans tips it to grow to $5, which would leave our 2,004-share parcel worth $10,020.

Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, expects the ASX 200 stock to tumble to $4.10. At such a point, our $10,000 investment would have sunk to be worth $8,216.40.

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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