The Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) share price was a big beneficiary of rocketing oil prices into the first half of 2022.
On 8 June last year, Brent crude oil topped US$123 per barrel.
By 10 June, the Woodside share price was up 59% for the year.
As you'd expect, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) oil and gas company have since come under some pressure as the oil price retraced, particularly over the past weeks.
On 6 March 2023, Brent was fetching US$86.18 per barrel.
Yesterday that same barrel was trading for US$72.78, down 15.5%.
With energy prices tanking, the Woodside share price dropped 17.4% from 7 March through to yesterday's close.
Image source: Getty Images
What's next for the Woodside share price?
There are a range of factors that will impact the performance and returns Woodside offers to investors.
But clearly, the price of oil has a big influence. You need look no further than today's market action to see what I mean.
At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading for US$74.73, according to Bloomberg data. That's up 2.7% overnight.
As for the Woodside share price? It's up 1.42% in late morning trade to $31.53 per share.
So what can ASX 200 energy investors expect next?
Digging into oil price forecasts, here's what I wrote yesterday:
For investors with a medium-term horizon of at least a year or so, I believe both the Santos and Woodside share prices will trade significantly higher inside the next 12 months than where they're at today.
Well, we didn't have to wait nearly that long!
Buy the dip and bargain hunters snapping up shares this morning have been rewarded for wading in.
And I believe there could be significantly more gains ahead for the Woodside share price before the end of the year.
What do the experts say?
A number of prominent analysts have forecast a sharp increase in oil prices over the latter half of 2023.
Citing a dearth of new investments in exploration and production, analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast crude oil will be trading back at US$100 per barrel.
"The commodity super cycle is a sequence of price spikes with each high higher, and each low higher," Goldman Sachs analyst Jeff Currie said in February.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) also believe oil prices will move higher in H2, fuelled by increasing demand from China as the nation continues to reopen.
CBA mining and energy analyst Vivek Dhar isn't quite as bullish as Goldman's analysts but still expects the Brent oil price will increase to US$88 per barrel in the latter half of 2023.
"We see deficit risks rising in H2 2023, as global oil supply growth, driven mainly by US, Norway and Brazil, fails to keep up with global oil demand growth," he said.
How has the ASX 200 oil stock been performing?
As you can see in the graph below, the Woodside share price has struggled so far in 2023, down 11%. Over the past 12 months, the ASX 200 energy stock has gained 4%.
