Why is the Costa share price sinking 12% to a two-year low?

Costa's shares are having a poor start to the week…

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Key points

  • Costa's shares are falling hard on Monday
  • This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Credit Suisse
  • Its analysts have downgraded the horticulture company's shares

The Costa Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: CGC) share price has been sold off on Monday.

In morning trade, the horticulture company's shares were down as much as 12% to a two-year low of $2.52 before being paused.

What's going on with the Costa share price?

The catalyst for the Costa share price selloff on Monday appears to have been the release of a broker note out of Credit Suisse this morning.

According to the note, the broker has downgraded the company's shares to a neutral rating and slashed the price target on them by 24% to $2.80.

Credit Suisse made the move after revising its earnings estimates lower. These revisions were driven largely by weaker avocado prices, supply chain headwinds, and its expectation for a poor citrus season.

In respect to the latter, the broker notes that the current citrus season is on track to fall well short of expectations due to diseases impacting harvests.

As a result, it is now forecasting EBITDA well short of consensus estimates.

It expects EBITDA of $244.3 million in FY 2022 and $280.5 million in FY 2023. This compares to consensus estimates of $275 million and $302.3 million, respectively.

Is there anything else?

As things stand, it is unclear if there is anything else that is weighing on the Costa share price. Particularly given that a 12% decline seems quite severe for a broker downgrade to neutral.

However, all will be revealed later this afternoon. That's because the company appears to have been sent a price query request or speeding ticket from the stock exchange operator. This happens when a share makes a big move on high volume and no announcement.

The pause in trading announcement states:

Trading in the securities of the entity will be temporarily paused pending a further announcement.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended COSTA GRP FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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