A new report from VanEck suggests that this could be an opportunity for investors to buy the dip. 

Gold is currently trading around US$4,600 per ounce, down approximately 22% from its all-time high of US$5,595 in late January.

While the drawdown is significant, in our view it is presenting a compelling entry point for investors looking to add gold exposure.

What's causing the dip?

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck addressed the recent pullback, highlighting that several forces have hit gold simultaneously. 

He outlined that these drivers appear cyclical and technical rather than structural. 

Firstly, gold had been trading well above its long-term averages, making a short-term correction unsurprising. 

VanEck reinforced this move below the 200-day moving average aligns with normal pullbacks often seen during longer-term bull markets, rather than indicating a lasting bearish shift.

Additionally, ongoing tensions involving the US and Iran, along with pressure on energy-related revenues, may have led some sovereign investors to sell gold holdings to raise immediate cash. 

This appears to reflect temporary funding stress rather than any fundamental decline in long-term interest in gold.

Why gold shares could be set for a rebound

Despite recent volatility, VanEck said the structural drivers of gold remain firmly in place and in some cases are strengthening.

While the immediate impact of the conflict has pressured gold, history shows that oil shock events ultimately drive higher inflation and macro uncertainty, conditions under which gold has historically performed strongly.

VanEck said during previous oil-shock conflicts, particularly the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the 1991 Gulf War, gold demand surged over the medium term as investors priced in higher inflation and persistent macro uncertainty.

The current conflict has disrupted roughly 20% of global seaborne oil supply, the largest such disruption in modern history.

Looking through the volatility, we think the current environment continues to support gold's role as a strategic portfolio allocation and reinforces the case for adding exposure at current levels.

How to invest in gold shares

The ASX is home to many gold mining and production shares. 

Two of the largest ASX listed gold shares include: 

• Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)
• Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

There are also ASX ETFs that provide exposure to gold shares through a basket of miners, or tracking the spot price of gold: 

• Vaneck Gold Bullion ETF (ASX: NUGG)
• VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (ASX: GDX)
• Global X Physical Gold (ASX: GOLD)

The post Should you buy the dip on gold shares? Expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

According to a new report from Betashares, after years of low inflation, the environment investors have become accustomed to is starting to shift.

Hans Lee, Senior Finance Writer at Betashares, said for most of the past two decades, inflation was low enough that many investors didn't need to think about it. But that backdrop may now be shifting.

Treasury modelling flagged this month that the Iran conflict could push inflation to 5% or above. Both the RBA and the Federal Reserve have revised their inflation forecasts higher this year, with the RBA now expecting inflation to remain above its 2-3% target until early 2027.

How is inflation measured?

One way we measure this metric is using the The Consumer Price Index (CPI). 

It measures household inflation and includes statistics about price change for categories of household expenditure.

The most recent data shows CPI annual inflation was 3.7% in the 12 months to February 2026. 

This is above the Reserve Bank of Australia's goal range of between 2-3%. 

How does it impact investors

Inflation can eat away at returns more than many investors realise. 

For example, if your portfolio gains 6% but inflation runs at 4%, your real return is only about 2%. Investors must beat inflation just to preserve wealth.

According to Betashares, this is also extremely relevant for investors approaching retirement. 

A higher assumed rate of inflation may also move the goalposts on your FIRE number retirement target. That nominal $1 million figure would now be $1 million plus the rate of inflation meaning the number you need to reach keeps rising, which means the return your portfolio needs to deliver rises with it.

Where to invest in a high inflation environment

According to the report from Betashares, for investors looking to add inflation resilience to an existing portfolio, there are particular assets that may help.

Firstly, there is historical evidence that gold has been able to preserve most of its purchasing power through inflationary periods when paper assets have struggled.

Gold focussed ASX ETFs include: 

• BetaShares Gold Bullion ETF – Currency Hedged (ASX: QAU)
• Vaneck Gold Bullion ETF (ASX: NUGG)

Another asset class to consider according to Betashares is royalty companies. 

These are businesses that own royalty streams on commodities or other assets, collecting a percentage of revenue rather than bearing production costs. 

That structure may be less exposed to rising input costs, although performance will depend on commodity prices and other factors.

For exposure to royalty companies, investors may consider Betashares Global Royalties ETF (ASX: ROYL). 

Finally, listed infrastructure often have revenues that are linked (to varying degrees) to inflation through regulated pricing or contractual arrangements. 

However, the extent of this linkage and its impact on income may vary.

An ASX ETF that provides exposure to this sector is FTSE Global Infrastructure Shares Currency Hedged ETF (ASX: TOLL). 

The post Where to invest if inflation keeps rising – Expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

A new report from VanEck has shed light on the sectors that may hold up in this current environment. 

Global energy fragility 

According to VanEck, The Middle East crisis has reinforced how fragile global energy security is, particularly given Iran's role in oil production and the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. 

As a result, investors are wondering how best to position themselves for the turmoil.

VanEck said we may be moving from a short-lived shock to a conflict that could last months, disrupting crude oil and LNG supply and affecting the energy system's core infrastructure, transport, production, and refining.

We think gold, defence, commodities and quality are structurally positioned for this environment.

Gold still a safe-haven 

VanEck said gold is supported by central bank accumulation, fiscal deterioration and geopolitical uncertainty.

Since the crisis broke out, gold has risen back above US$5,200/oz on safe-haven demand, and we think it is expected to push further.

According to the report, the structural drivers for gold, central banks accumulating at the fastest pace since Bretton Woods, US fiscal deterioration and the slow unwinding of dollar hegemony were in place before the Middle East conflict. 

The Strait of Hormuz threat, if it materialises, introduces the prospect of an inflationary oil shock on top of an already uncertain rate environment. That combination, geopolitical uncertainty plus inflation risk, is an environment in which gold has historically performed best.

For investors looking to gain exposure to gold shares, options include: 

• Vaneck Gold Bullion ETF (ASX: NUGG)
• VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (ASX: GDX) – gives investors instant access to 92 of the largest and most liquid global gold mining companies.

Defence 

VanEck also noted defence spending was already in a structural upcycle; the conflict has accelerated the long-term repricing of security.

In terms of defence, if investors think long-term yields are near their highs, they could consider layering in duration, at the same time, with short-term rates rising, the yields on floating rate exposures will increase as rates rise. In addition, US Treasuries offer a potential portfolio hedge against risk-off periods and periods of rising rates.

ASX ETFs to consider in this sector include: 

• Vaneck Global Defence Etf (ASX: DFND)
• Betashares Global Defence ETF – Beta Global Defence ETF (ASX: ARMR). 

More information on global defence ETFs can be found here.

Energy and quality 

Furthermore, demand for traditional energy has increased, and investors are once again turning to traditional resources as well as critical minerals for strategic portfolio exposures. 

In terms of quality investing: 

The uncertainty creates volatility and quality companies tend to do relatively well in these environments as investors seek companies with stronger balance sheets and stable earnings.

Real assets also tend to perform relatively well because they provide tangible, consistent cash flows and act as inflation hedges.

For investors seeking energy and quality focussed exposure: 

• VanEck Vectors Msci World Ex Australia Quality ETF (ASX: QUAL)
• VanEck Australian Resources ETF (ASX: MVR)

The post How to position your ASX portfolio in the current environment – Expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.