The first half of 2026 has been anything but boring for Australia's biggest ASX shares.
Geopolitical tensions, sticky interest rates, AI hype, and plenty of market nerves have kept investors guessing. Some of the ASX's biggest names have shrugged it all off. Others have looked like they accidentally stepped on a rake.
Here's how five of Australia's heavyweight stocks have fared so far this year — and what brokers think comes next.
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BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)
BHP has quietly been one of the year's standout performers.
The mining giant is up around 30% in 2026, although the shares have eased about 3% over the past month after disappointing investors with another cost blowout at its Jansen potash project.
Even so, the investment case of this ASX share remains intact.
Iron ore continues to generate enormous cash flow, copper demand is rising alongside electrification, and potash still offers long-term growth potential—even if investors will have to wait a little longer than expected.
Brokers have become more measured after the rally. Most now rate the stock a hold, with the average price target sitting roughly 10% above the current share price.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)
Commonwealth Bank has done exactly what investors expect during uncertain times. The banking giant has gained around 2.5% this year and continues to attract investors seeking dependable earnings and reliable dividends.
The problem? Valuation.
Many analysts believe the ASX share now reflects almost all the good news. Slower loan growth and increasing competition are expected to make future earnings growth harder to achieve.
As a result, several brokers have shifted to sell recommendations despite the bank's enviable market position.
Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)
Wesfarmers has quietly put together a very impressive year.
The ASX share has climbed roughly 12% in 2026 and surged 15% during June alone as stronger consumer spending boosted confidence in retailers.
Bunnings and Kmart continue to dominate their respective markets, while management keeps finding new ways to grow—from Anko stores overseas to expanding Bunnings into pet care and automotive products.
Investors love quality businesses. Analysts do too.
The only catch is that, after the recent rally, many brokers believe the stock is now close to fair value.
CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)
No blue chip has had a rougher year than CSL.
The healthcare giant has slumped about 34% in 2026 and remains more than 50% below where it traded a year ago. Profit downgrades, margin pressure, and softer earnings have dented investor confidence.
Yet analysts haven't abandoned ship.
Many still believe CSL's world-class plasma business, strong competitive position, and product pipeline justify considerably higher prices over the longer term. The average broker target suggests roughly 23% upside.
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)
Woodside has delivered a solid performance this year, rising around 19% despite slipping 7% over the past month.
Higher oil and LNG prices, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, have boosted earnings and cash generation. Like many commodity producers, however, its fortunes remain closely tied to forces outside management's control.
Broker views are mixed. Most rate the ASX share a hold, although the average price target of around $33.60 still implies close to 19% upside.
