CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares staged another strong rebound on Thursday, rising 2% to $117.65.
That extends the company's gain over the past month to roughly 20%, a welcome change for long-suffering shareholders.
But the bigger picture remains far less impressive.
Despite the recent rally, CSL shares are still down about 32% in 2026 and have plunged a remarkable 51% over the past 12 months.
Not long ago, CSL was considered one of the safest long-term holdings on the ASX. It built a reputation as a dependable compounder, consistently growing earnings and rewarding patient investors. These days, however, the healthcare giant seems to lurch from one setback to another.
So what happened?
Image source: Getty Images
CSL's latest update exposed the challenges
CSL's latest market update provided a timely reminder of why investors have become so cautious.
The company now expects FY26 revenue of approximately US$15.2 billion and underlying net profit after tax and amortisation (NPATA) of around US$3.1 billion, both on a constant currency basis.
At first glance, those numbers may not appear disastrous. Dig a little deeper, however, and several headwinds become clear.
The biggest issue remains CSL Behring's immunoglobulin business in the US. Demand for immunoglobulin products continues to grow at a healthy mid-to-high single-digit pace, which is broadly in line with management's expectations. Unfortunately, investors in CSL shares won't see the full benefit of that demand growth immediately.
CSL is normalising inventory levels across its distribution channels, which is expected to reduce reported revenue by approximately US$300 million.
Deteriorated prices
While CSL has successfully expanded its market share and stabilised sales volumes, pricing conditions have deteriorated. In other words, the company is selling more product but earning less from it. Management expects that dynamic to reduce revenue by roughly US$200 million.
The hits keep coming. CSL also flagged revenue impacts from conflict in the Middle East, slower-than-expected growth for gene therapy treatment HEMGENIX, and increasing competition in its iron business. Together, those factors are expected to shave another US$150 million from revenue.
As if that wasn't enough, CSL expects to recognise around US$5 billion in impairment charges across FY26 and FY27. That's the sort of figure that tends to make investors wince.
Still reasons for optimism
The update wasn't entirely negative.
Management continues to forecast stronger revenue growth during the second half of FY26 for CSL Behring, supported by solid underlying demand, commercial execution, and benefits from ongoing operational improvement programs.
Meanwhile, vaccine business Seqirus is now expected to deliver a moderately stronger performance than previously anticipated.
Those positives help explain why the price of CSL shares has bounced from recent lows despite the disappointing headlines.
Is the CSL share price a buy?
Broker sentiment suggests analysts are not ready to give up on CSL shares just yet.
According to TradingView data, there have been 18 broker ratings on the stock over the past three months. Eight analysts rate CSL as a buy, while the remaining ten sit on the fence with hold recommendations.
The average price target stands at $141.53, implying potential upside of approximately 20% from current levels.
That suggests many analysts believe the worst may already be reflected in CSL's battered valuation.
