BHP Group (ASX: BHP) shares have had an incredible run throughout the first six months of 2026.
At the time of writing, the ASX mining giant's shares have climbed further into the green, up around 1% to $60.73 a piece.
It's good news for investors after a bumpy ride throughout June where the share price has fluctuated between $60.08 and an all-time high of $65.59 a week ago. Since hitting that peak, BHP shares have since lost over 7% of their value.
Despite the past week's decrease, BHP shares are still up around 33% for the year to date and nearly 71% higher than 12 months ago.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up around 0.1% at the time of writing, and around 1% higher for the year-to-date.
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So, if I bought $5,000 of BHP shares 12 months ago, what would it be worth today?
BHP shares were trading at just $35.64 a piece this time last year, and have since climbed 71% higher.
That means that your $5,000 investment in the mining giant 12 months ago would be worth $8,550 today.
Can the share price keep climbing?
After a strong rally over the past year, it looks like BHP shares are now considered to be trading at fair value.
Market Index data shows the majority of brokers have a hold rating on the shares. The $61.66 average target price implies a potential 1% upside, at the time of writing.
TradingView data shows something very similar. Out of 18 analysts, 13 have a hold rating on the mining giant's shares. Another four rate the stock as a strong buy.
The average $63.75 target price implies a 5% potential upside at the time of writing. However, the range of forecasts is huge. Some expect the shares to fall 34% to a minimum target price of $40.31. Others think BHP shares have the potential to climb 53% higher to $92.99.
The good news about BHP is even if investors are on the fence about the outlook for its share price, the stock is still a strong passive income play.
Are BHP shares a good buy for passive income?
BHP is a premier blue-chip ASX 200 stock with a market capitalisation of around $309 billion and a strong operational history. At the time of writing, BHP is the largest company trading on the Australia share market.
BHP is a cyclical stock, primarily exposed to iron ore, copper, and other key commodities. The downside is its cyclical nature means BHP is at risk from value fluctuations. But the benefit is that it usually outperforms during periods of economic recovery.
The large-scale but low-cost miner has a long history of regular dividend payments, dating back to around 2006. And its commodity exposure is diversified, too. This means it is able to maintain its dividend payouts even when commodity prices fluctuate.
The miner most recently paid a fully-fanked interim dividend of $1.0385 to shareholders in March. Analysts forecast BHP to pay an annual dividend of $1.91 per share in FY26, and a slightly lower $1.80 per share in FY27. That translates to a forward dividend yield of around 3.1% and 3% respectively, at the time of writing. That's some decent passive income.
