There are some ASX value stocks that could be too cheap to miss amid the current market conditions. As Warren Buffett likes to say, be greedy when others are fearful.
The business HMC Capital Ltd (ASX: HMC) has seen its share price drop 57% since May 2025, at the time of writing, as the below chart shows.
When a solid business goes through a big slump like that, it could be a great idea to jump on the opportunity while it's still there, assuming the business is capable of growing its underlying earnings and value.
For readers who haven't heard of this business before, it's a diversified alternative asset manager focused on real estate, private equity, the energy transition, digital infrastructure, and private credit. It manages close to $20 billion on behalf of institutional, high-net-worth, and retail investors.
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Why the ASX value stock looks like a great buy
For starters, when I'm considering a beaten-up stock, I want to see that core earnings drivers have a good longer-term outlook.
As a fund manager, a key driver is the assets under management (AUM) because that means more management fees.
In the FY26 half-year period, the business reported that its recurring earnings "stepped up meaningfully", with management fees growing to $84.5 million – this represented a year-over-year increase of 34%.
The business also reported that between June 2025 and December 2025, its AUM increased by 4% year over year.
In my view, one of the biggest recent positive moves by HMC Capital was establishing a strategic partnership with KKR for an investment of $603 million to "realise value" in the HMC Energy Transition Platform.
It noted progress across a 5.7GW development pipeline, positioning the business to unlock substantial embedded value as key projects approach the final investment decision (FID) over the next 12 to 18 months.
HMC Capital estimates that its funds management operating profit (EBITDA) will be $85 million in FY26, with forecast 15% year-over-year growth in real estate EBITDA and 20% growth in private credit EBITDA.
Great valuation
The ASX value stock is expecting to generate pre-tax operating earnings per security (EPS) of at least 40 cents, which puts it at 6x this metric.
The projection on CMC Markets currently suggests that the business could generate actual EPS of 33.1 cents. That means the business is valued at just 7.4x FY26's estimated earnings.
As a bonus, the dividend yield looks attractive too. It has provided guidance that it will pay a dividend of 12 cents per share, which equates to a dividend yield of close to 5%.
