Premier Investments Ltd (ASX: PMV) shares have been having a tough time in 2025.
Since the start of the year, the retail giant's shares are down almost 40%.
Things have been so bad, that the Peter Alexander and Smiggle owner's shares hit a fresh 52-week low of $14.96 on Monday.
Is this a buying opportunity for investors? Let's see what analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are saying.
What is the broker is saying?
Macquarie was disappointed with Premier Investments' trading update at its annual general meeting and appears concerned that the poor form could continue. It said:
Disappointed expectations, falling -15% below VA Consensus expectations, and implying -7% decline y/y. PMV noted 'discretionary spending remains under pressure with consumers cautious due to ongoing cost-of-living impacts'. ABS data indicates that monthly spending grew +3.5% MoM (+6.4% YoY), and Overall Discretionary improved +1.6% MoM (+5.1% YoY) in Oct-25. Further, our High Frequency Consumer Data also indicates that discretionary consumer spend is not declining.
We think the quantum of Smiggle's expected decline (MRE: -15% y/y) suggests continuing product weakness + share loss. We also question whether Peter Alexander is still maintaining the ~9% sales growth at the Aug-25 result, with our forecasts now expecting a moderation to +5% growth for 1H26E, implying a deterioration over Sep-Nov-25.
Should you buy Premier Investments shares?
While the broker acknowledges that Premier Investments shares look cheap on paper, it is recommending investors keep their powder dry until its next update. Macquarie said:
We think the market has priced-in zero earnings for Smiggle, with the PMV valuation effectively reflecting the value of its BRG stake (A$6.93 per share), and Peter Alexander (A$9.24 per share). However, we reiterate Neutral, and look to the next disclosure of PA Segment LFL performance to gain confidence that earnings weakness is contained only to Smiggle.
According to the note, Macquarie has retained its neutral rating with a heavily reduced price target of $16.20 (from $20.80).
Commenting on its neutral rating, the broker said:
Neutral, but with improving risk/reward symmetry + upside-catalyst rich FY26e. Macro tailwinds to Australian consumption balanced and growth in Peter Alexander offset by headwinds to Smiggle from trading weakness.
Catalysts: Successful launch of capital-light, points-based PA loyalty program (Oct-25), Stronger Smiggle & UK trading over Christmas (Jan-26 update), M&A using Net Cash (MRE: ~FY27E+), Smiggle leadership appointment (Untimed).
