Owners of BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares will want to know what's expected of the ASX mining share in terms of profitability. That's because the profit generation could have a significant influence on both the future dividend payments and the BHP share price.
As one of the world's biggest miners, there are usually three key factors for the company's earnings success. There's how much of its commodities it produces, how much it costs to deliver that production, and how much it's able to sell its production for.
BHP's current production is focused on three key commodities: iron ore, copper, and coal. It's also working on a potash project in Canada.
Investors recently saw an update about the miner's FY26 first-quarter production, so let's see how that could play out for profit in the 2026 financial year and beyond.
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FY26
The broker UBS noted that the first quarter to September 2025 was a "solid start" to FY26, with the Escondida (copper) and BMA (coal) projects stronger than expected. Escondida benefited from record concentrator throughput and recoveries.
The Western Australian Iron Ore (WAIO) business saw that the car dumper maintenance was completed faster than planned. Excluding maintenance, production annualised at around 300mt per annum, which signals growing supply chain resilience.
However, WAIO shipments at 70mt were down 2% year over year because of significant planned maintenance. The major rebuild of car dumper 3 at Port Hedland had a 4.3mt volume impact, but will position WAIO for strong operational performance over the rest of FY26.
UBS highlighted that BHP does "sell and ship iron ore products via different commercial distribution channels" which goes some way to address market concerns regarding potential disruptions to iron ore shipments to China.
The realised iron ore price of US$84 per wet metric tonne (wmt) was stronger than expected. This is a key driver of profit and the BHP share price.
UBS said it recently increased its price forecasts for BHP's key commodities, reflecting "a) tighter copper supply, b) copper to aluminium substitution, c) resilient iron ore fundamentals, d) ongoing momentum in gold prices."
The broker believes that resilient resource prices should "support returns" from BHP.
UBS thinks BHP will maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% of net profit in the first half of FY26, though a higher payout is possible if resource prices remain favourable.
In the 2026 financial year, UBS' net profit is predicted to grow to US$11.45 billion.
FY27
The big mining giant is expected by UBS to deliver a relatively flat profit for owners of BHP shares.
The broker suggests that BHP could generate a net profit of US$11.38 billion in the 2027 financial year.
FY28
In the 2028 financial year, BHP's net profit could then see another very similar result.
Analysts at UBS suggest the business could see its net profit decline slightly to US$11.32 billion.
FY29
The 2029 financial year could see the business deliver yet another year of flat profit generation.
BHP is projected to slightly increase its net profit to US$13.33 billion, according to UBS.
FY30
The last year of this series of projections could be the best of all for owners of BHP shares.
According to the projection from UBS, the company could generate a net profit of US$14.25 billion.
Is the business a buy? Currently, UBS has a neutral rating on the miner, with a price target of $45.
