Why this investing expert is calling time on NAB shares

A leading investment expert forecasts growing difficulties for NAB shares.

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Time to sell ASX 200 shares written on a clock.

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Key points

  • NAB shares are down almost 10% since hitting a record closing high last month.
  • NAB's FY 2025 results showed a slight decline in cash earnings and a 2.9% drop in statutory net profit.
  • Analyst Damien Nguyen from Morgans suggests selling NAB shares.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares are pushing higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock closed yesterday trading for $40.32. In early afternoon trade on Thursday, shares are changing hands for $40.46 apiece, up 0.3%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 1% at this same time.

Taking a step back, NAB shares are up 2.8% over the past 12 months, excluding the two fully franked dividends the big four bank paid to eligible stockholders during this period. At the current price, the ASX 200 bank stock trades on a fully franked dividend yield of 4.2%.

What's been happening with NAB shares?

It was only last month that NAB shares notched a new record closing high of $44.67 apiece on 6 October.

On 5 November, the stock closed at $44.53, but it has since fallen more than 9%.

Part of that selling pressure came following the release of NAB's full-year FY 2025 results on 6 November, with the stock closing down 3.3% on the day.

Investors favoured their sell buttons after the bank reported full-year cash earnings of $7.09 billion, slightly down from the prior year.

And on the bottom line, NAB's statutory net profit of $6.76 billion declined by 2.9% from FY 2024.

Commenting on the FY 2025 results that pressured NAB shares on the day, CEO Andrew Irvine noted that despite the decline in statutory profit, "NAB has delivered a 1% lift in underlying profit in FY25."

Irvine added:

This reflects good momentum, particularly over 2H25, as we execute the first year of our refreshed strategy while maintaining prudent balance sheet settings. Cash earnings were broadly stable over the year.

While credit impairment charges increased, pleasingly a number of key asset quality outcomes improved over 2H25, consistent with a supportive Australian economic environment.

Is the ASX 200 bank stock a sell?

Morgans' Damien Nguyen recently ran his slide rule over the big four Aussie bank (courtesy of The Bull).

"The NAB differentiates itself from its major bank peers with its leading banking franchise involving small-to-medium sized enterprises," said Nguyen, who has a sell recommendation on NAB shares.

"While this market offers higher returns than home lending, it's also higher risk," he noted. "Also, regulatory capital initiatives and competition are intensifying."

Nguyen concluded:

We don't believe NAB's growth outlook justifies its recent elevated trading multiples. Cash earnings of $7.091 billion in full year 2025 were down 0.2% on the prior corresponding period.

NAB currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 18 times.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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