The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has certainly taken a tumble in recent times. It has fallen more than 14% from its November high, and it's down 20% since the June 2025 high, as the chart below shows. The lower valuation means larger passive income for investors.
Pleasingly for prospective investors, the dividend yield becomes larger as share prices fall. For example, if the dividend yield is 4% and the share price declines 10%, the yield becomes 4.4%.
The CBA share price has fallen even harder than 10%, so let's take a look at what the passive income could be in the year ahead if someone were to invest $10,000.
Dividend projection for CBA shares
Forecasts are not guarantees of what will happen next. But, analysts are expecting dividend increases from the ASX bank share in the next two financial years.
According to the projection on CMC Markets, CBA is projected to increase its payout by 2% to $4.95 per share in FY26.
This means that the ASX bank share could pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.6%, including franking credits, or 3.2% excluding franking credits.
That means if someone were to invest $10,000 into CBA shares at the time of writing, they would get an annual cash payment of approximately $320 and franking credits of approximately $140. That's a total of $460 of grossed-up passive income.
Pleasingly, the forecast on CMC Markets suggests the annual CBA dividend could be increased by another 3% in FY27 to $5.10 per share.
Is this a good time to invest for passive income?
The bank is certainly a lot cheaper than it was earlier this year. Commonwealth Bank is not growing very quickly – in the FY26 first quarter update it reported that cash net profit was only 1% higher than the quarterly average of the second half of FY25.
CBA continues to grow its volumes at a good pace, with business lending rising 10.4%, household deposits climbing 9.5% and home lending going up 6.1% in the FY26 first quarter. If it can continue growing its loan balances at that pace, the bank could grow earnings at a solid speed.
I wouldn't say the ASX bank share is cheap despite the fall, it's still trading at close to 25x FY25's estimated earnings.
It's a high-quality bank, but the valuation and slow earnings growth aren't attractive. It'd make me want to look at other opportunities.
