What's Morgans' view on ANZ shares after hitting an all-time high?

ANZ shares are hitting all-time highs. Can they keep rising?

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Key points

  • Morgans suggests trimming ANZ shares as they trade at all-time highs, despite a 29-cent increase in the 12-month price target to $33.09.
  • ANZ's FY25 results revealed a 10% decline in statutory profit and a 14% fall in cash profit, leading to a downgrade in FY26-28F earnings forecasts by 1%-2%.
  • Although ANZ declared total dividends of 166 cents per share for FY25, Morgans believes shares are overvalued, indicating a potential downside of 13.85%.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares have opened approximately 1.13% higher today. 

Over the last month, the big four bank shares have climbed an impressive 6.6%. 

In 2025, its share price is up 34%.

At the time of writing, ANZ shares are now hovering around another all-time high of $38.41 each. 

It seems investors have been gobbling up this banking giant's shares following the release of its full-year results

What did ANZ Group Holdings report?

  • Statutory profit for FY25: $5,891 million, down 10% on FY24
  • Cash profit: $5,787 million, down 14% on FY24
  • Cash profit excluding significant items: $6,896 million (flat on FY24)
  • Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio: 12%
  • Return on equity (RoE): 8.1%; Return on tangible equity: 8.8%

Also included in its recent financial year report was the declared final dividend of 83 cents per share, partially franked at 70%.

This brought its total dividends for FY 2025 to 166 cents per share, which is in line with what it paid out to shareholders in FY 2024.

However, now trading at a seemingly inflated valuation, is there any more upside for ANZ shares?

Here is Morgans' recent analysis following its full-year results. 

Price target lifts 

The team at Morgans noted 2H25 profit declined 7% vs 1H25, with a -3% decline in pre-provision profit (revenue +2%, costs +6%) and a doubling of credit impairment charges. 

Earnings were materially below market expectations. The analysis from the broker did note that consensus may not have fully adjusted for the significant items. 

Consequently, the broker downgraded its FY26-28F cash earnings by 1%-2%. 

However, its 12-month target price lifted 29 cps to $33.09 due to CET1 capital outperformance in 2H25. 

Despite lifting its price target, it seems ANZ shares are still trading well above fair value. 

The price target from Morgans indicates a downside of 13.85%. 

We recommend clients TRIM into share price strength, with the share price and implied valuation multiples trading at or around all-time highs.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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