BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are among the most popular miners out there for investors.
But right now, if you were to buy only one of them, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) thinks that Rio Tinto would be the one. But why? Let's dig deeper into things and find out.
What is the broker saying?
Macquarie has been looking at the mining sector ahead of the release of first quarter updates later this month.
With respect to BHP, the broker believes it could fall short of consensus estimates when it releases its quarterly production result. It said:
BHP to miss on Iron Ore/Copper/Met Coal: We expect a weaker quarter (vs consensus) in Iron Ore and Copper (-3% below VA), with a larger 6% miss in Met Coal, with production across all commodities expected to be lower on a QoQ basis. While we have not observed shipments impacts to BHP following the recent iron ore sales challenges by CMRG, a resolution remains uncertain and the effects could be delayed given most sales are on a forward basis.
As for Rio Tinto, Macquarie is expecting the mining giant to deliver an update largely in line with expectations. It adds:
RIO broadly in line, slightly lower on Copper: We expect overall 3Q performance to be broadly in line with VA estimates, with key differences in copper production, where our estimate of 200kt is ~3% below VA estimates of 206kt. Commissioning of Simandou is a near term focus.
Which is best, BHP or Rio Tinto shares?
At present, Macquarie has neutral ratings on both mining shares. However, it has voiced its preference for Rio Tinto shares if you were insisting on owning one of them.
This is due to its strategic positioning and operational momentum. The broker explains:
RIO preferred large cap exposure. While we expect a weaker iron ore market in the medium term, we recently changed our preference to RIO over BHP. We believe RIO's strategic positioning and operational momentum make it more attractive in the near term, with strong catalysts into the December Capital Markets Day.
Macquarie has a neutral rating and $115.00 price target on Rio Tinto's shares and a neutral rating and $42.00 price target on BHP's shares.
It also rates fellow miners South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) and Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) as neutral and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) and Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) as underperform.
