Investors that are on the lookout for mining sector exposure might want to consider Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares.
That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, which are feeling bullish on the mining and mining services company.
What is the broker saying?
Bell Potter is positive on this beaten down mining stock due to its belief that FY 2026 will be a year of significant earnings growth.
In fact, the broker is forecasting EBITDA growth in the region of 75% for the year. This is thanks to grow across mining services, lithium, and iron ore. The latter is being underpinned by the Onslow ramp-up. It explains:
In FY26, we forecast group underlying EBITDA of $1.6b (FY25 $0.9b), including: Mining Services ($907m, FY25 $737m); iron ore ($667m, FY25 $252m); lithium ($133m, FY25 $23m); and other (-$140m, FY25 -$111m). The ramp-up of Onslow supports improved FY26 guidance, with a material uplift in group iron ore sales (26.1- 28.8Mt, FY25 17.7Mt), mining services production volumes (305-325Mt, FY25 280Mt) and haul road toll fees. Around 60% of Mining Services production EBITDA is derived from MIN-owned operations and around 40% from external customers.
Importantly, this improving financial performance and its lower capital expenditure means that pressure on its balance sheet could start to ease in FY 2026. As this has been a major overhang for its share price, any deleveraging could be viewed very positively by the market. Bell Potter adds:
MIN point to FY26 group capex guidance of $1.1b, a material reduction on prior years (FY24 $3.4b; FY25 $1.9b) as Onslow development nears completion. MIN's refreshed board has a clear focus on maintaining adequate liquidity while deleveraging its balance sheet. At 30 June 2025, MIN had cash of $412m and debt (inc. leases) of $5,762m, for net debt (inc. leases) of $5,350m. From FY27, we expect that MIN's free cash generation will support deleveraging.
We forecast net leverage (net debt/EBITDA) of 2.7x in FY28, down from 5.9x at FY25-end. Additional levers to strengthen its balance sheet could include asset selldowns and refinancing of existing debt (US$ bonds) under improved interest terms.
Time to buy Mineral Resources shares
According to the note, the broker has put a buy rating and $49.00 price target on the company's shares.
Based on its current share price of $39.58, this implies potential upside of approximately 24% over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its recommendation, Bell Potter said:
The ramp-up of Onslow iron ore sales will support improved cash flows and balance sheet deleveraging. MIN is strategically positioned to benefit from a recovery in lithium markets, with around 450ktpa (SC6 attributable) of offline spodumene production capacity. MIN's mining services platform delivers a stable, recurring earnings stream that is expected to expand with internal and third-party volume growth.
