S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) financial share GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) just hit a new 52-week low.
The global boutique asset manager's share price fell 3.95% to $1.70 in earlier trading.
Meantime, the ASX All Ords Index is also in the red today, down 0.6%.
New things are happening for this ASX dividend stock of late.
Let's investigate.
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What's the latest news with this ASX dividend stock?
Arguably, the most important news is that GQG Partners will be joining the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) at the next rebalance.
S&P Dow Jones Indices announced its September quarter rebalance after the market closed on Friday.
Entry into the ASX 200 means this dividend stock will be bought by all the fundies running ASX ETFs that track the benchmark index.
This passive investment support can have tangible effects on a stock's share price. (Check out the 8 other ASX 200 entrants here).
It may seem odd that GQG Partners is about to rise through the ranks from the All Ords to the ASX 200 while it's trading at a 52-week low.
But that's how it works out sometimes.
Stocks have to meet market cap and liquidity requirements to enter the ASX 200.
At the quarterly rebalance, some ASX shares that don't meet the criteria are dropped, and that makes room for others.
What did GQG Partners report last month?
During last month's earnings season, GQG Partners released its 1H FY25 results.
GQG Partners reported revenue of US$403 million, up 11% on 1H FY24, and net operating income of $306.8 million, up 12.3%.
The company's net profit after tax (NPAT) attributable to shareholders was US$230 million, up 14.4%.
Total funds under management (FUM) increased 10.8% to US$172.4 billion as of 30 June.
However, the company noted that net inflows decreased 28% from US$11.1 billion in 1H FY24 to US$8 billion in 1H FY25.
What about the dividend?
GQG Partners declared an unfranked interim dividend of 7.34 US cents per share for the half, up 14.5% on 1H FY24.
The company pays dividends quarterly. The last four dividends, converted into Australian currency, total 22.73 cents.
Based on today's new 52-week low, this ASX stock offers a trailing dividend yield of 13.4%.
Trailing dividend yields represent past earnings, not future earnings, so you have to keep that perspective in mind.
Having said that, it's significant to note that GQG's trailing dividend is almost four times the average market yield these days.
What do the experts think of this ASX dividend stock?
GQG's high dividend yield is among the reasons Remo Greco from Sanlam Private Wealth has a buy rating on this ASX stock.
On The Bull last week, Greco said:
In our view, GQG offers an appealing entry into the global funds management sector.
Recently trading on a price/earnings ratio below 10 times … suggests good value.
Greco said GQG was known for its long-term conviction style of investing, which had given it a "solid track record of performance".
On results day last month, GQG Partners CEO Tim Carver said the company's relatively defensive portfolio positioning had led to an underperformance in 1H FY25, but their longer-term record was market-beating.
He said:
As at 30 June 2025, each of our flagship strategies outperformed its respective benchmark in each rolling five-year period since inception at least 97% of the time, if not 100%.
Macquarie tips 55% potential upside in a year
Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on GQG Partners shares after the company released its 1H FY25 report.
The broker has a 12-month share price target of $2.63, which implies a near-55% potential upside from its 52-week low today.
Analyst Elizabeth Miliatis spoke of "dependable dividends" from the ASX financial stock.
Miliatis said:
While relative performance has deteriorated from Dec-24, with funds positioned defensively … GQG has successfully turned periods of underperformance around previously (eg., CY21 and CY23).
Notably, our analysis also suggests GQG's net flows are historically not correlated with fund performance, implying flows are a function of GQG's strong distribution footprint and reputation, and giving us comfort that recent outflows are a short-term headwind.
Is the 28% fall in investment inflows a problem?
Morgans maintained a hold rating on the ASX dividend stock after it reported last month.
The broker thinks the reduction in investment inflows is likely sentiment-driven, explaining:
… we do expect flows to slow materially and potentially see outflow pockets.
The August FUM update points to no major outflows post the July update.
At this point, we view it as more sentiment risk than earnings risk.
Nonetheless, Morgans said its hold rating reflected its preference "to allow the current 'flows risk' period to reduce before taking a more positive stance".
The broker has a price target of $2.65 apiece on this ASX dividend stock.
What's next for GQG Partners?
GQG Partners told investors it would continue to expand its product range to meet demand in FY26.
The firm believes there are significant growth opportunities in the US.
In July, GQG launched its first active ETF for its US Equity strategy, which has attracted $200 million in funds.
Many investors prefer ETFs over traditional unlisted managed funds, given their greater transparency and lower cost.
GQG Partners share price snapshot
This ASX dividend stock has fallen 33% over the past year.
