I think it is fair to say that it has been a tough year for Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares.
Since the start of 2025, the uranium producer's shares have been under a lot of pressure and are now down over 20% year to date.
Is this a buying opportunity for investors? Let's see what Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) thinks about the beaten down miner.
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What is the broker saying?
Macquarie notes that Boss Energy reported a loss that was greater than expected in FY 2025. However, this was mainly due to non-cash costs. It said:
Net loss of $34m after tax was larger than MRE $17m on higher costs (mainly non-cash in nature).
Looking ahead, the broker highlights that its production ramp up in FY 2026 remains intact. This is despite some significant challenges at East Kalkaroo. It said:
FY26 production ramp intact: BOE has reiterated 1.6Mlbs production at Honeymoon in FY26, C1 costs A$41-15/lb, and AISC A$64-70/lb. Wellfields B1-B3 are running at full flow, and wellfields B4 and B5 have been in development (all within the Honeymoon domain). East Kalkaroo wellfield planning (to the east) appears to have raised some significant challenges to development (mineralisation continuity and leachability).
Should you buy Boss Energy shares?
Macquarie continues to sit on the fence with this one and sees it as neither a buy nor a sell.
According to the note, the broker has retained its neutral rating on Boss Energy's shares with a reduced price target of $2.10. This implies potential upside of approximately 6% from current levels.
Its analysts highlight that its shares are being priced at a premium to rival Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN). They said:
Neutral. BOE shares are trading on a 6-7% FCF yield on our medium-term production assumption (1.74Mlb/hr at Honeymoon, 1.5Mlb/yr gross at Alta Mesa). Implied uranium price at the current share price is ~US$72/lb (on more challenging Honeymoon assumptions) vs Paladin US$59/lb.
Valuation: TP -6.7% to $2.10, mainly on factoring in the result, increased corporate costs, and a minor reduction in resource values (we use 1.0x NAV at US$85/lb, consistent with our broader uranium coverage). Catalysts: Uranium price, management commencement and strategy clarification, resource update (including satellites), M&A, IX column completion/commissioning (#4-6).
Macquarie appears to be more positive on Paladin Energy and has an outperform rating and $8.40 price target on its shares.
