If you were watching the charts yesterday, you likely saw Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares take off into the stratosphere.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline stock closed up a whopping 9.1% on Thursday at $12.12 apiece.
That put the stock up 90.3% over 12 months and notched a new record closing high.
And those outsized gains don't include the 52.8 cents a share in fully franked dividends Qantas paid (or shortly will pay) over the full year.
At the current Qantas share price of $11.99 in morning trade on Friday (down 1.0%), that sees the ASX 200 stock trading on a fully franked dividend yield (part pending, part trailing) of 4.4%.
The huge day for Qantas on Thursday followed the release of the company's full financial year (FY 2025) earnings results.
And it saw the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) raise their 12-month price target by more than 15%.
Here's why.
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What is Macquarie forecasting for Qantas shares now?
Investors sent Qantas shares flying after the company reported FY 2025 revenue and other income of $23.82 billion, up 8.6% year on year.
Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of $2.64 billion were up 16% from FY 2024, and broadly in line with Macquarie's own EBIT estimate of $2.66 billion.
And the Flying Kangaroo posted an underlying profit before tax (UPBT) of $2.39 billion, up 15% year on year and also in line with the broker's UPBT estimate of $2.40 billion.
And the board declared both a regular and special final dividend, bringing the total final dividend payout to 26.4 cents a share.
In lifting its price target for Qantas shares, Macquarie also noted the airline's FY 2026 guidance.
"1H26 rev guidance was particularly strong in high-margin Domestic at 8-10%; Internationals still good a+8%," the broker said.
And Qantas' new aircraft (with more on the way) are beginning to pay off.
"New fleet, lower fuel cost came through. Loyalty is benefiting from Classic+ program annualising, with redemptions accelerating the accumulation fly wheel," Macquarie said.
Looking ahead, the broker added:
Focus will turn to the additional growth profile of project Sunrise with first routes launched by 1H26 result. This trend and the new A321XLR will improve yield mix, driving overall RASK [revenue per available seat kilometre] improvement.
As for potential headwinds, the broker said, "Risks are slowing economy and delayed rate cuts, albeit we expect QF can respond by delaying capacity growth."
Connecting the dots, Macquarie raised its 12-month price target for Qantas shares from $10.40 to $12.00, while maintaining its neutral rating.
The broker concluded:
LF [load factor] may have peaked and yield is now improving in an environment of softer oil prices, strong cost discipline, and the benefits of a newer fleet. FY26E EPS growth of +11% is attractive, but already reflected in EV/EBITDA multiple, with growth expected to slow in FY27.
