S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks have broadly enjoyed a tremendous run higher over the past 12 months.
As you're likely aware, that bull run has been driven by the surging gold price.
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What's been happening with the gold price?
One year ago, gold was trading for US$2,391 per ounce. On Wednesday, that same ounce was fetching US$3,372, putting the yellow metal up 41% over the year.
In recent months, safe haven gold has been supported by global jitters over the uncertain impacts of US President Donald Trump's global tariff campaign.
And last week's unexpectedly weak US jobs report fuelled expectations of more Fed interest rate cuts. Gold, which pays no yield itself, tends to perform better in low and falling rate environments.
Now, I've been called out before for insinuating that every dollar increase in the gold price goes straight to the bottom line for ASX 200 gold stocks. In reality, they may choose to process lower-grade ore or make other operational or capex decisions that might impact their profits amid the surging gold price.
Nonetheless, the 41% year-on-year increase in the price of the metal they dig from the ground has been a welcome boon for ASX gold miners.
How welcome?
Well, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of the ASX 200 – has rocketed 49.5% over the past 12 months.
Drilling into the 12-month performance of some of the biggest ASX 200 gold stocks (as at market close on 6 August), here's how they stack up:
- Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 21.1%
- Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are up 43.3%
- Ramelius Resources Ltd(ASX: RMS) shares are up 50.8%
- Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) shares are up 94.9%
- Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are up 91.8%
- Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares are up 44.4%
- West African Resources Ltd (ASX: WAF) shares are up 89.5%
Boom!
And these gains don't even include the dividends most of the miners paid out over this period.
Now, looking at the gains the Aussie gold miners have already delivered in the year gone by, you may think the ship has sailed on this golden profit opportunity.
But that bull run may be in its early days yet.
Why ASX 200 gold stocks could shine bright for years to come
Looking to the next three months first, Citi expects the gold price to trade in the range of US$3,300 to US$3,600 per ounce.
That means the ASX 200 gold stocks could be eyeing another 6.8% increase in the price of bullion.
"US growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are set to remain elevated during the second half, which alongside a weaker US dollar, are set to drive gold … to new all-time highs," Max Layton, Citi's global head of commodities research, said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review).
Then there's the growing role of central banks as major bullion buyers.
Liam Twigger, deputy chairman of Argonaut, expects ongoing central bank demand for the yellow metal to support higher gold prices – and ASX 200 gold stocks – for up to another decade.
"Every time the price comes off, the buyers of the bars are central banks, and that's a fundamental change – you've got quality buying," Twigger said. "So, we are looking at a long-term bull market… a probably five or 10-year run."
