The ASX lithium share Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) has seen its fair share of pain in the last year, dropping approximately 50%. I think investors should consider whether the business is an opportunity at this lower price, even if it has risen 25% since 23 June 2025, as the below chart shows.
As one of Australia's largest lithium miners, the company is heavily reliant on what happens with the lithium price, which has suffered in the last few years as the supply and demand balance shifted.
Let's take a look at what experts think of the miner and the situation.
Mixed views on the Pilbara Minerals share price
According to a collation of analyst opinions by Commsec, there is a diverse range of views on the business. There are (at least) six buy ratings, six hold ratings and eight sell ratings.
UBS is one of the brokers that has a sell rating on the ASX lithium share.
The broker says that lithium markets "remain oversupplied". UBS explained:
JV structures, the integration of partners and strong balance sheets has meant the standard supply response from producers has taken longer to play out amid weak prices. We believe that consensus pricing and equities are still too high.
The path forward for some may become a little clearer with upcoming FY26 guidance but, for now, our forecasts remain broadly unchanged and we stay underweight in the sector, seeing an extended period of low prices ahead of further supply cuts.
The broker noted it has been underweight on the sector for around two years and it has been "itching to upgrade", but its latest sector deep dive signalled a "likely prolonged phase of oversupply and depressed prices."
UBS said lithium incentive prices have fallen further because of reduced EV demand.
Predictions for the ASX lithium share
For FY26, UBS is assuming that the Ngangaju plant remains on care and maintenance mode.
Meanwhile, Pilgangoora is expected to continue on the P850 setting, with 860,000kt of production at an all-in sustaining cost of around US$525 per tonne. Production is one of the main things the company can control, which influences the Pilbara Minerals share price.
It noted that FY25 brought increased investment in growth, mine development and infrastructure, which the broker expects to revert to more normal levels in FY25 (with a 50% reduction year-over-year).
UBS has a sell rating on the Pilbara Minerals share price, with a price target of $1.10. A price target is where analysts think the share price will be within 12 months of the investment call. Therefore, the broker is suggesting a possible fall of 28% within the next year.