The first half of 2025 was a rollercoaster marked by significant global news, market swings and shifting economic indicators.
From Trump tariffs, to the RBA cutting its cash rate target, gold breaking records, oil prices whipsawing and the Aussie dollar bouncing around, we saw it all, and volatility was the name of the game.
And yet, when you look at the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO), it's only up 3.7% so far this year. This however masks a February to April decline of almost 15% in the All Ords, followed by a strong rebound of almost 17%.
Lets take a look at the last 6 months, and what might be in store for the rest of the year.
What happened in H1?
- Gold had its moment soaring 25% to over US$3,300/oz in its strongest first-half since 1979 according to Dow Jones Market Data. This was a reflection of the market likely responding to a combination of Trump tariffs, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
- The Aussie dollar dropped to US$0.5955 in April, only to bounce back to above US$0.65 in June.
- Oil prices are lower than where they began in January despite chaos in the Middle East, likely due to a mix of weak demand and OPEC+ supply.
- The RBA's cash rate has been reduced by 50 bps.
- And the ASX 200? It danced between global nerves and domestic resilience, with bank stocks, gold miners, and a few digital darlings leading the charge.
The best performers in ASX 200 so far this year, measured by increase in share price, include:
- Austal (ASX: ASB) – up 99%
- Regis Resources (ASX: RRL) – up 72% thanks to higher gold prices
- Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) – up 60%
- Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) – up 19%
- Life 360 (ASX: 360) – up 48%
Meanwhile, losers included IDP Education (ASX: IEL) (down 68% as uncertainty around immigration rules increased in its main markets), HMC Capital (ASX: HMC) (down 57%) and Dominos Pizza (ASX: DMP) (down 31%).
So clearly there has been lots of volatility in H1, but what does this mean for H2 and what can investors do about it?
So what happens in H2?
Here's the truth: no one knows exactly how H2 will play out. Not your broker and not your favourite economist. Markets move fast. They react to headlines, central banks, elections, and random tweets from people with rocket companies.
But rather than guessing where the ASX will finish in December, a better way might be to focus on what you can control:
- Earn. Save. Invest. Repeat
Building wealth starts increasing your income over time combined with a strong savings habit. It's the fuel that powers your compounding engine. - Buy great companies — then let time do its thing
You don't need to predict every move. You need to own great businesses that have strong competitive advantages and can grow their earnings significantly over time. - Don't flinch when markets do
Short-term volatility is a feature, not a bug. It's going to happen but ignore the noise, and let compounding go to work. - Learn as you go
Mistakes will happen. There is no investor that has a 100% success rate. But we can all learn from our mistakes and get better over time.
Foolish takeaway
Predicting market movements in the second half of the year is inherently uncertain. Volatility will come and go, but that's just the market doing what it always does.
The real question is, how will you respond? Keep earning, keep investing, and stay focused on owning great businesses. Over time, it's discipline and patience (not predictions) that build real wealth.
