The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price is giving back some of yesterday's outsized gains today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium miner and diversified resources producer closed up 13.2% yesterday trading for $20.57. That strong run followed the release of the miner's third quarter activities results.
In morning trade on Wednesday, there looks to be some profit-taking going on with shares changing hands for $20.34 apiece, down 1.1%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.3% at this same time.
With the Mineral Resources share price catching headwinds this past year from both a slumping iron ore price and a global lithium oversupply, shares in the ASX 200 miner are down a painful 71.8% over 12 months.
Does that now make the stock a long-term bargain, or is it still in the 'falling knife' stage?
Below we look at both the bull and bear case for the beaten down miner.
Why the Mineral Resources share price could keep falling
Starting with the bears, Red Leaf Securities' John Athanasiou believes the Mineral Resources share price is more of a falling knife than a screaming bargain (courtesy of The Bull).
"Mineral Resources is a leading diversified resources company, with extensive operations in lithium, iron ore, energy and mining services across Western Australia," said Athanasiou, who has a sell recommendation on the miner.
"MIN's outlook is challenged by falling iron ore and lithium prices," he explained.
As for the company's disappointing half-year results that have pressured the Mineral Resources share price, Athanasiou said:
The company reported an underlying net loss after tax of $196 million from continuing operations in the first half of fiscal year 2025, down 200% on the prior corresponding period. The company didn't declare an interim dividend.
Athanasiou also flagged concerns over the company's corporate governance issues, noting:
The recent and sudden resignations of two non-executive directors have raised corporate governance concerns among investors. The share price has been smashed in the past 12 months.
And with net debt at the end of 3Q FY 2025 of $5.4 billion, Athanasiou concluded, "Also, high debt levels amid declining investor confidence skews the risk/reward to the downside, in our view."
The bull case for the ASX 200 miner
The analysts over at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have a decidedly more optimistic outlook for Mineral Resources.
Following on the miner's third-quarter update yesterday, Macquarie noted:
MIN's 3QFY25 was on balance a good result, with Onslow shipments (-6%) lower vs VA consensus, but in line with MQe.
Mount Marion increased 20% to 185-200kt, a positive, while Onslow downgrade was already anticipated by the market, thus not a surprise.
Macquarie has an outperform rating on the miner and a $35.00 12-month target for the Mineral Resources share price. That represents a potential upside of 72% from current levels.
