Why this $7 billion ASX 200 energy stock is falling hard today

Investors are pressuring the Aussie energy provider on Thursday. But why?

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) is taking a tumble today.

Shares in the $7 billion company closed yesterday trading for $29.94. In earlier trade on Thursday, shares tumbled to $28.78 apiece, down 3.9%. After some likely bargain hunting, shares are currently changing hands for $29.50 each, down 1.5%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.3% at this same time. And in a better apple-to-apple comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) is 0.15% lower.

Here's why Ampol shares look to be underperforming today.

ASX 200 energy stock tumbles on update

The ASX 200 energy stock is under selling pressure today following the release of its fourth quarter trading update (4Q 2024).

Investors may be favouring their sell buttons, with Ampol reporting Lytton Refiner Margin (LRM) for the quarter of US$4.60 per barrel. That's down 56% from the US$10.52 per barrel achieved in 4Q 2023.

Management noted this decline reflected the impact of the Fluidised Catalytic Cracking Unit (FCCU) "pitstop" in November. Ampol said it proactively took that measure in a period of lower than historical average product cracks.

The company highlighted that LRM in December improved to US$6.10 per barrel.

On the production front, total refinery production for 4Q 2024 came in at 1.542 million litres. That was up 8.1% from the 1.428 million litres produced in 4Q 2023. The uptick was achieved despite the ASX 200 energy stock reporting "a less favourable proportion of high-value products" over the quarter due to the maintenance work being undertaken.

With maintenance work completed, the FCCU restarted in December. Management said it has since been operating as planned. And the pitstop provided Ampol with the opportunity to defer the testing and inspection (T&I) it had previously scheduled for 2025 to the first half of 2026.

Ampol also provided a full-year 2024 trading update. The company reiterated earlier expectations of full year unaudited replacement cost operating profit earnings before interest and tax (RCOP EBIT) of $715 million.

RCOP earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for 2024 are expected to come in at $1.2 billion.

Management noted that this follows two years of record performance for Ampol.

As for the nascent new year of 2025, management said:

Since the end of the 2024 financial year, additional sanctions have been imposed, including on vessels trading in the dark fleet, impacting global crude and product supply chains.

The sanctions, combined with a colder northern hemisphere winter have lifted middle distillate cracks while gasoline cracks remain soft, reflecting seasonal factors.

Ampol is scheduled to release its full audited 2024 results on 24 February.

Ampol share price snapshot

With today's intraday slide factored in, shares in the ASX 200 energy stock are down 16% since this time last year.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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