Last year was challenging for investors in ASX 200 mining shares such as BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), and Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN).
The flailing Chinese economy remains a big concern, and there is uncertainty regarding how much stimulus will be introduced to prop up manufacturing, industry, and the property market.
As a result, commodity prices have been volatile, and as we all know, this has a direct flow-through impact on the earnings of ASX 200 mining companies, their share prices, and the dividends they pay investors.
In assessing whether Fortescue, Mineral Resources, or BHP shares delivered better returns in 2024, let's look at what matters most to investors: share price movement (capital gain or loss) and dividends.
On share price movement, BHP shares win
Unfortunately, there was no contest as to which stock delivered the best share price growth because none of them went up! Rather, the contest was in which one held up best during their collective downturn.
As the chart below shows, BHP shares did better than Fortescue and Mineral Resources.
All three ASX 200 mining shares lost value, but BHP lost less than the other two.
The BHP share price fell 21.5% to close the year at $39.55.
The Fortescue share price fell 37.1% to finish the year at $18.25.
The Mineral Resources share price tanked, with factors beyond volatile commodity prices causing a 51.1% dive to $34.25 per share by 31 December.
In a shock scenario that no one saw coming, founder, CEO, and managing director Chris Ellison resigned in November amid a company investigation relating to his personal tax affairs and disclosures.
He will remain the managing director for 12 to 18 months until a replacement is found.
On dividend payments, Fortescue shares win
In 2024, BHP shares paid an interim dividend of A$1.0962 in March and a final dividend of A$1.11 in October. This totalled A$2.6143 in annual dividends with full franking credits.
Fortescue shares paid an interim dividend of A$1.08 per share in March. The iron ore pure-play then paid an 89-cent final dividend in September for a total annual dividend of A$1.97, fully franked.
Mineral Resources paid an interim dividend of 20 cents per share, fully franked, in March.
The diversified miner decided not to pay a final dividend later in the year. Management cited weak lithium prices and the remaining investment in the Onslow Iron project.
So, in dollar value terms, BHP shares win.
Arguably, the dividend yield is more important. So, let's calculate that using the ASX 200 mining shares' closing values on 31 December to determine which delivered the better returns.
The results are: 6.61% for BHP, 10.79% for Fortescue, and 0.58% for Mineral Resources, plus franking.
So, Fortescue shares did best.
