With the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) hitting dozens of new record highs and milestones in 2024, it's safe to say that most ASX 200 shares have had a good year.
That's certainly the case for blue chips like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES).
However, the rising market tides haven't lifted all boats this year. Some ASX 200 shares have spent 2024 either treading water or going backwards.
Today, let's discuss two of these ASX 200 shares and why I think there's a reasonable chance they can bounce back in 2025. Of course, I could be wrong, but we'll only know with the benefit of hindsight.
Two ASX 200 shares that could bounce back in 2025
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)
First up is ASX 200 mining share BHP, which has had a pretty awful 2024, dropping close to 17% since the start of January. This poor performance has largely mirrored weak commodity markets, with iron ore in particular also having a rough year this year.
However, I think there's a good chance that BHP's fortunes will rebound in 2025.
There are reports that the Chinese government is planning some major stimulus programs next year. If enacted, these programs should help iron ore prices recover significantly.
Additionally, the plans of incoming US President Donald Trump to enact large-scale tariffs on imports entering the American markets could also conceivably boost iron ore and steel prices if followed through.
As such, I wouldn't be surprised to see BHP shares recover some, or even all, of their lost ground next year.
Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)
Woolworths is another ASX 200 share that has had an awful year. Not just awful in Woolworths' case, but one of its worst in recent memory, with the company losing almost 20% of its value over 2024 so far. An arguably botched CEO transition, as well as several updates and earnings reports that indicate the company is losing its grocery market share, are the likely culprits behind Woolies' year to forget.
However, I also think that this is an ASX 200 share that might well recover in 2025. When bad news seems relentless, investors can sometimes oversell a stock.
With Woolworths at its cheapest valuation in years right now, as well as its continued dominant position (despite the recent setbacks) in the grocery market, investors might feel more generous in the coming months. Particularly if Woolies' next earnings reports show it has stemmed the bleeding.
In my view, the company's huge investments in supply chain automation, distribution, and online delivery also bode well for future earnings.
