After shedding 5.6% in October, the Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) share price put in a decidedly better performance in November. Though the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock still couldn't quite match the gains posted by the benchmark index.
Shares in the Aussie oil and gas giant closed out October trading at $23.78. On Friday, the final trading day of November, shares changed hands at $24.51.
This saw the Woodside share price up 3.1% in November, trailing the 3.8% monthly gain posted by the ASX 200.
Is the Woodside share price poised to rebound?
The Woodside share price is kicking off December on a positive note. In afternoon trade on Monday, shares are up 0.8% at $24.71. However, after a tough year, the energy stock remains down 21% in 2024.
Global oil prices didn't help the company much, though they remained fairly steady and held above US$70 throughout November. Brent crude started the month at US$73.10 per barrel and ended the month at US$72.94 per barrel.
For some idea of the headwinds facing Woodside this year, Brent crude was trading above US$91 per barrel in early April.
As for the positive turn in the Woodside share price in November, investors may have been buying the stock following the US presidential election results.
Woodside could enjoy tailwinds from Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025 amid his significantly greater support for the oil and gas industry than witnessed under the Biden administration.
Not only is Woodside CEO Meg O'Neill a native of the US state of Colorado, but the company has been actively growing its operations in the US. In the last two years, Woodside has committed to investing some $30 billion in North America.
With Trump's more hawkish views on Iranian-backed Hamas' war with Israel, investors may also be beginning to price in an increased potential of greater US involvement in the conflict. If the US engages more directly, this could lead to supply disruptions in the Middle East, sending oil prices higher in 2025.
How about those dividends?
The Woodside share price also looks to have gotten support in November from the ongoing strength of its dividend payouts.
Over the past 12 months, Woodside has paid out a total of $1.937 a share in fully franked dividends.
That sees the stock trading on a trailing dividend yield of 7.8%.
With Woodside's share price sharply down for the year and oil prices potentially picking up, a number of brokers are forecasting a pending upswing for the stock into 2025.
Potentially offering a boost to the share price, in the latter week of November, Morgans noted, "We expect the oil market to enter a deficit supply balance during 2H 2024."
And the broker tipped Woodside as the best ASX 200 energy share to buy.
According to Morgans:
Despite Brent oil trading in line with our long-term forecast, WDS' share price implies a near cycle-low oil price level. We do not see this as capable of being explained by WDS' growth profile (comfortably funded) or risks around non-core assets such as Browse.
Morgans has an add rating on the stock with a $33.00 price target. That implies a potential upside of almost 36% from the current Woodside share price. And that's not including those future dividends.
