It's been a tough year for Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock has faced pressure on a number of fronts.
Among the headwinds over the past 12 months, shareholders rejected the company's climate transition plan as not doing enough to mitigate its emissions reductions.
Woodside shares also faced some pressure amid temporary regulatory setbacks at some of its major growth projects, including the gas-focused Scarborough Energy Project.
And then there's the big retrace in global oil prices.
In late afternoon on Thursday, Brent crude oil was trading for US$73.66 per barrel.
While that's up from the 12-month low of US$69.20 per barrel on 10 September, the oil price is down 22% since this time last year, when that same barrel of Brent was fetching US$94.43.
At yesterday's closing price of $24.60, Woodside shares are down 35% over this same period.
What's been pressuring the oil price, and what's next?
The oil price has been sliding amid a growing supply and demand imbalance.
On the supply side, despite the ongoing production cuts from OPEC+, non-cartel nations continue to produce at, or near, record levels. The United States, the world's top oil producer, shows little sign of slowing down.
On the demand side, China's ongoing economic malaise has seen a decline in energy demand from the world's number two economy. And analysts believe that may persist into 2025.
As for how the oil price might impact Woodside shares in the year ahead, The Australian Financial Review reports that UBS has lowered its 2025 to 2026 forecast for Brent crude oil to US$75 a barrel. The broker cited weaker expected global demand for the reduced estimate.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
Time to buy the dip on Woodside shares?
While Woodside shares could slide further from here, I believe the worst of the selling is likely over for the ASX 200 energy stock.
First, even the lowered UBS forecast of US$75 per barrel Brent in 2026 is some 2% higher than current prices. And this doesn't take into account some significant upside risks for the oil price, mainly from the Middle East.
While we can all only hope the situation calms down in the region, this week's exploding pagers and walkie-talkies targeting Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon could invite a significant reprisal.
As for Woodside's major growth projects, the company says it is back on track to deliver those on schedule, with encouraging results from early production at Sangomar.
Turning to some expert opinions on whether now is the time to buy Woodside shares on the cheap, Citi doesn't believe it's quite time to pull the trigger yet.
The broker recently lowered its price target for the ASX 200 energy stock to $24.50 a share. Its analysts said there could be further price pressure amid potential new costly acquisitions as well as falling dividends.
Still, Citi's downgraded price target is less than 0.04% below yesterday's closing price.
The analysts at Morgans have a far more bullish take on Woodside's outlook.
Morgans has an add rating on the stock with a $33.00 price target. That represents a potential upside of more than 34%.
And while Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral rating for Woodside shares, the Goldman has a price target of $31.70 on the stock. That's a potential 29% upside from current levels.
Woodside stock also trades on a 7.9% fully franked trailing dividend yield.
