If I buy $10,000 of AGL shares right now, how much passive income could I receive in the next year?

Atop increasing dividends, the AGL share price has gained 40% over the past 12 months.

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AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) shares have been grabbing the attention of passive income investors after the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy provider supersized its final dividend.

Atop those juicy dividends, the AGL share price has been a strong performer over the past 12 months, up 40%.

So, on top of the potential for further share price gains, how much passive income might I receive if I bought $10,000 worth of AGL shares today?

What kind of passive income might I expect from AGL shares?

Before moving on, take note that the yields discussed below are trailing yields, derived from the past 12 months of payouts. The passive income investors receive from AGL shares in future years may be higher or lower, depending on a range of company-specific and macroeconomic factors.

With that said…

AGL reported its FY 2023 results on 10 August.

Highlights included a 24.9% increase in underlying profit after tax, which came in at $281 million. Revenue was up 7.1% year on year to $14.2 billion.

This saw the AGL board increase the final, unfranked dividend to 23 cents per share, up a stellar 130% from FY 2022.

For the full year, passive income investors will have received 31 cents per AGL share, up 19% from the prior year. At Friday's closing price of $10.96, that represents a trailing yield of 2.8%.

So, let's crunch some numbers here.

At Friday's closing price, I could buy 912 AGL shares with $10,000 and have enough change left over for a cup of (cheap) coffee.

Going by the trailing yield, I could then expect to earn $282.72 in passive income over the coming year.

Now, as mentioned, the real returns could be higher or lower.

Judging by AGL's FY 2024 guidance, I believe the actual figure could turn out to be significantly higher.

Dividend payouts are largely based on a percentage of a company's profits.

And AGL is forecasting it will deliver a net profit after tax of between $580 million to $780 million in FY 2024.

That's 105% higher than FY 2023 profits on the low end of guidance. And a 170% increase in profits on the higher end of guidance.

That, in turn, could see AGL shares deliver a big boost in passive income in the year ahead.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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