Why Whitehaven Coal shares could 'continue rewarding' ASX 200 investors in 2023: expert

The ASX 200 coal miner was a clear beneficiary of soaring energy costs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

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Key points

  • Whitehaven Coal shares rocketed 261% in 2022
  • The market expects 60% earnings growth in 2023
  • Consensus estimates forecast Whitehaven will offer a 9.7% dividend yield from Monday’s closing price

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) shares led the charge on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) in 2022.

By the time we flipped our calendar over to 2023, the ASX 200 coal share had gained a stellar 261% over the 12 months. And this in a year when the ASX 200 fell by 5.5%.

The miner was a clear beneficiary of soaring energy costs, with thermal coal prices driven to new records following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

This helped Whitehaven deliver a record half year, as reported in its quarterly update for the three months ending 31 December.

Among the highlights, the miner forecasts it will post all-time high half-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $2.6 billion. For some context, that compares to EBITDA of $600 million in the prior corresponding period.

You can see the remarkable performance of the Whitehaven Coal share price in the chart below.

So far, 2023 has presented a fair number of ups and downs for the big coal miner. But with more ups than downs, shares have gained 6% since the opening bell on 3 January.

With that kind of performance already in the bag, what can investors expect next?

More rewards on offer from Whitehaven Coal shares?

While thermal coal prices have retraced some 20% from their 2022 record highs, demand for high-quality Aussie coal is forecast to remain strong over the year ahead.

And eToro markets analyst Josh Gilbert believes Whitehaven Coal shares could offer investors more rewards over the next 12 months.

According to Gilbert:

For investors, Whitehaven's growth in 2022 was sensational, with earnings soaring… Although growth will moderate over 2023, investors are likely to see another record year with market expectations for 60% earnings growth, before tailing off in 2024.

Regarding the longer term, Gilbert advised some caution, but he sounded a bullish note for Whitehaven shares in 2023.

"Whitehaven might not be a stock to marry, but it may be set to continue rewarding investors in 2023," he said.

And don't forget the dividends.

As my Fool colleague James Mickleboro notes, "Consensus estimates have the coal miner rewarding its shareholders with a 91 cents per share dividend in FY 2024."

At the current share price, that represents a yield of 9.7%.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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