Is the Appen (ASX:APX) share price meltdown a buying opportunity?

Is it time to buy Appen shares?

| More on:
A woman with black afro hair and wearing a white t-shirt shrugs and purses her lips

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • The Appen share price was sold off on Thursday
  • Its shares are now down 70% from their 52-week high
  • Bell Potter has given its verdict on Appen's shares

The Appen Ltd (ASX: APX) share price was sold off on Thursday following the release of the artificial intelligence data services company's full year results.

The company's shares ended the day a massive 29% lower at $6.11.

This means the Appen share price is now down a very disappointing 70% from its 52-week high.

Is the Appen share price weakness a buying opportunity?

The team at Bell Potter has been running the rule over Appen's results and has given its verdict on its shares.

Unfortunately for any investors thinking that the Appen share price could now be an absolute bargain buy, its analysts aren't convinced and are suggesting that investors keep their powder dry for the time being.

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its hold rating and slashed its price target by 41% to $6.75.

What did the broker say?

Bell Potter notes that Appen's full year results fell short of expectations.

It said: "Underlying EBITDA of US$77.7m was 4% below our forecast and the low end of the US$81-88m guidance range (which Appen had previously guided to). The miss was driven by both lower revenue than forecast (US$447.3m vs BP US$455.1m) and EBITDA margin (17.4% vs BP 17.8%). Operating cash flow was down 17% to US$53.9m and the cash conversion rate decreased from 103% to 77%. The final dividend of A5.5c 50% franked, however, was in line with our forecast."

The broker also points out that Appen is not providing guidance for FY 2022 but has provided longer term targets. And while the latter has led to Bell Potter increasing its revenue forecasts slightly, it has taken a hammer to its earnings estimates due to weaker margins.

Bell Potter explained: "We have upgraded our revenue forecasts by 2% and 5% in 2022 and 2023. Our forecast revenue growth is now in the low double digit percentages which is below the mid teens growth required to double revenue by 2026. We have, however, downgraded our underlying EBITDA forecasts by 13% and 14% in 2022 and 2023 due to reductions in our margin forecasts to around 16% in both periods."

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended Appen Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Appen Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

Man holding out Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Broker Notes

Where to invest $8,000 on the ASX in April 2024

A leading broker thinks these shares would be quality options this month.

Read more »

Two male ASX 200 analysts stand in an office looking at various computer screens showing share prices
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's what brokers are recommending as buys this week.

Read more »

Happy couple doing grocery shopping together.
Broker Notes

Buy one, sell the other: Goldman's verdict on Coles vs. Woolworths share prices

One stock is set for a 26% share price gain over the next 12 months while the other is destined…

Read more »

Broker Notes

Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers believe that now could be the time to snap up these shares.

Read more »

A male sharemarket analyst sits at his desk looking intently at his laptop with two other monitors next to him showing stock price movements
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

A man has a surprised and relieved expression on his face. as he raises his hands up to his face in response to the high fluctuations in the Galileo share price today
Broker Notes

These ASX 200 shares could rise 20% to 50%

Big returns could be on the cards for owners of these shares according to analysts.

Read more »

Broker written in white with a man drawing a yellow underline.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy now

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

A smiling businessman in the city looks at his phone and punches the air in celebration of good news.
Broker Notes

Why this ASX 100 stock can rise 14% to a new 52-week high

Goldman Sachs thinks investors should be buying this top stock now.

Read more »