3 reasons this broker thinks the Newcrest (ASX:NCM) share price is a buy

Here’s why the Newcrest share price could be a buy…

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Newcrest share price Woman holding gold bar and cheering

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It hasn’t been a good year for the Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) share price.

Since the start of 2021, the gold miner’s shares have fallen 11.5% and now trade at $23.90.

This isn’t too far away from the Newcrest share price 52-week low of $21.85.

Is the Newcrest share price good value?

One leading broker that sees a lot of value in the Newcrest share price is Goldman Sachs.

According to a note out of the investment bank this morning, its analysts have retained their buy rating but trimmed their price target slightly to $30.50.

Based on the current Newcrest share price, this implies potential upside of almost 28% over the next 12 months.

Why is Goldman bullish?

There are three key reasons why the broker is positive on Newcrest.

One of those is the company’s growth pipeline, which it believes will add value in the future.

Goldman said: “Key growth projects Havieron and Red Chris block cave continue to make significant steps forward. […] Combined, NCM’s major project growth pipeline could deliver additional attributable production of ~550koz of gold and ~140kt of copper (~1,350koz Au eq.) per annum when completed, roughly half of NCM’s FY21 Au eq. production. We value the projects at US$5.9bn (A$10.3/sh), with an average IRR of ~25%. NCM has the strongest balance sheet in over a decade, enabling it to fund value-accretive growth projects over the next 5-10 years and reducing project risk.”

Another reason for the bullish view on the Newcrest share price is its belief that the company’s earnings will hold up despite production declines.

It said: “Our supportive copper price view and development of the high-returning Havieron project means that we forecast NCM delivering flat earnings over the next five years on average, despite the known challenge of declining grade at key asset Cadia. NCM’s copper contribution will lift from ~23% of revenues in FY21E to 28% by FY25E, and continue to grow as the copper-dominant Red Chris and Wafi Golpu block caves are constructed (39% by FY30E).”

Finally, the broker sees a lot of value in Newcrest shares at the current level. Particularly in comparison to its peers.

The broker explained: “NCM is trading at 0.71xNAV vs. North American gold majors at ~1.2xNAV (FactSet broker consensus).”

Should you invest $1,000 in Newcrest right now?

Before you consider Newcrest, you'll want to hear this.

Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now... and Newcrest wasn't one of them.

The online investing service he’s run for nearly a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

*Returns as of August 16th 2021

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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