The fortunes of ASX healthcare shares can often swing on one momentous milestone.
Examples of such a make-or-break event could be a breakthrough invention, successful product trial, or regulatory approval (or rejection).
Such incidents can see health stocks unambiguously rocket up or crash down.
As such, it's always wise to be aware of when stock-turning news might be expected.
Helpfully, Bell Potter analysts this week identified some ASX healthcare shares that could have company-changing events coming up this year.
It's worth noting again that there's no telling whether the resulting news will turn out to be good or bad. So Bell Potter staff do classify them as "speculative buys".
Anyway, here are 3 of them:
Extending life for brain cancer patients
Kazia Therapeutics Ltd (ASX: KZA)'s flagship product is called paxalisib, which is a treatment for glioblastoma — an aggressive type of brain or spinal cord cancer.
"Kazia is expected to release final data from its phase 2 study investigating the use of paxalisib in glioblastoma," Bell Potter analyst John Hester said in a memo to clients.
"The interim data showed a 5-month extension in overall survival."
The Australian company has been invited to join an international study in the United States called GBM Agile.
"This is an approval study and patients are currently recruiting. If approved, the drug will have exclusivity until at least 2031 and likely longer following the grant of further patents."
Kazia shares were trading at $1.32 on Wednesday afternoon. That's up 11.34% this year.
Bell Potter has set a target price of $2.50.
Will heartache turn into joy for Mesoblast shareholders?
While they would have known it was a speculative purchase, the past 12 months nevertheless have been rough on Mesoblast Limited (ASX: MSB) investors.
The stock has plummeted more than 43% over the last year.
But the current quarter could see a massive shakeup in the shares' fortunes.
"Potential closure of Novartis deal for remestemcel-L with US$50m upfront in 3QCY21 will be a key catalyst," said Bell Potter analyst Tanushree Jain.
The paediatric use for its flagship product remestemcel-L could also be re-submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the US this year.
"Potential approval and sales by mid-CY22 [would be] earlier than our current expectations and would be a material catalyst."
Mesoblast stocks were going for $2.03 on Wednesday afternoon. Bell Potter has set a target of $3.60.
Is this the 'holy grail'?
Aroa Biosurgery Ltd (ASX: ARX) has developed soft tissue regeneration technology branded Endoform.
"It provides a 'holy grail' solution to the notorious trade-off between safety, efficacy, and cost versus competitors," said Bell Potter analyst Elyse Shapiro.
"FY22 revenue guidance incorporates conservative growth assumptions and leaves room for upside."
But the exciting recent development seems to be the recent launch of its Myriad soft tissue matrix for use in surgery.
"The September-December quarter remains, in our view, the timing for an inflection point of account conversion and improved sales momentum for both Myriad and distribution partner Tela Bio Inc."
Aroa shares were trading at $1.22 on Wednesday afternoon, up 7% on the year.
Bell Potter's speculative price target is $2.
