Goldman Sachs slaps sell rating on Newcrest shares as gold price soars

Gold shares are going nuts, but Newcrest could be overvalued, according to Goldman Sachs.

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The best gold shares and gold miners on the ASX are all the rage with the gold price on a tear, thanks to an unexpectedly dovish stance from the US Fed with markets pricing in a 25 basis point cut to U.S. cash lending rates when the Fed meets on July 31. 

A lower cash rate would equal lower risk free returns across the board including on cash, money market securities and benchmark 10-year US treasuries. As such gold as a 'store of value' should be more attractive as its lack of income also looks less bad versus increasingly feeble yields on other assets. 

As a result of changing macro expectations the US dollar gold price has raced to US$,1421 an ounce this afternoon, which is just about A$2,000 an ounce.

Gold miners like Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) are now printing near A$1,000 per ounce profit margins on gold with all in sustaining costs at its mines around A$1,029 over FY 2019.

While larger miners like Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) have risen 65% and 100%, respectively, over just the past year.

However, Newcrest shares may have gotten ahead of themselves at $33.89 this afternoon if the powerful analysts at Goldman Sachs are on the money.

According to a July 10 research note out of the bank Newcrest shares are worth just $26, with the bank assuming a "long-run" gold price of US$1,400 per ounce. 

Goldman's also values St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) and Regis Resources shares at $3.90 and $4.30 respectively. 

Motley Fool contributor Tom Richardson has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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