Analysts and talking heads in the media are all weighing in on the merits of this week's $3.96 per share offer to acquire Mantra Group Ltd (ASX: MTR) by hotelier Accor.
In fact. The Financial Times's respected Lex opinion column has claimed the price "looks cheap" on the basis that it represents just 11.5x estimated forward EBITDA.
French hotelier Accor's offer is complicated by the unknown impact of Mantra Group's recent $52.5 million acquisition of the fast-growing Art Series Hotels that have a certain je ne sais quoi.
Mantra itself boasted the Art Series deal would add between $8.5 million to $9.5 million in underlying EBITDA and would be immediately earnings per share accretive.
It's likely this deal, alongside the weak Australian dollar motivated Accor to make its move sooner rather than later.
The FT also noted the strong tailwinds supporting the Australian tourism sector, with 7.9 million visitors last year representing one third of the country's population.
It's possible Mantra Group demands a better offer from Accor, or that another overseas hotel group looking to grow acquisitively makes a better offer than the $3.96 per share on the table.
Either way, I expect a deal will go through and am surprised to see the market is leaving 18 cents on the table with the stock changing hands for $3.78.
Still, I would not suggest buying Mantra shares in the hope of a quick profit, as the stock is likely to fall sharply if no agreement is reached.
