Is the Blackmores Limited share price set to crash below $100?

Credit: Blackmores

I think it’s fair to say that 2015 was a year to remember for shareholders of Blackmores Limited (ASX: BKL). Its share price started the year at $35.19 and then finished the year a staggering 519% higher at $217.98.

Unfortunately for shareholders 2016 has been a year to forget so far. Since the turn of the year Blackmores’ shares have dropped 48% to $112.89.

But could its shares now be heading below $100?

In my opinion a lot will depend on the health supplement manufacturer’s first quarter result and the accompanying forward guidance at its annual general meeting.

In its full year results Blackmores’ CEO Christine Holgate caused a few alarms to sound when she warned that the first quarter result would be down on the prior corresponding period.

This was blamed on a volatile Australian wholesale market which had softened as a result of destocking from retailers and some exporters switching the channels through which they acquire the company’s products.

Although she expects sales to improve as the year goes on, it is unclear whether full year sales are expected to be up or down on FY 2016’s result.

But it won’t be long until we learn more about the year ahead. On Thursday 27 October 2016 management and shareholders will converge at the Blackmores Campus for its annual general meeting and all will be revealed.

If the first quarter result and its forward guidance disappoints then I do believe there is a chance that its shares could drop below the $100 mark. But at the same time, should Blackmores announce better-than-expected news I believe there is every chance its share price could go gangbusters.

In the last five years Blackmores has delivered earnings growth of 28.7% per annum. At 20x full year earnings I believe this could be classed as reasonably cheap if it can continue this level of growth.

Much like Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL) and a2 Milk Company Ltd (Australia) (ASX: A2M), success in the China market will play a key role in this. If demand continues to be strong there’s every chance the growth will continue.

Whilst I think Blackmores will prove to be a great long-term investment, investors may want to consider holding off an investment until after its first quarter results have been announced next week.

Finally, if you're looking to invest in something today then I would highly recommend taking a look at these fast-growing shares for smart investors.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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