Is it time to buy Ardent Leisure Group?

Britain’s referendum on whether it will retain membership of the European Union (EU) is sending shockwaves through global markets, with no sector being spared. Blue-chip companies like Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ), CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) were sold-off indiscriminately as investors assess the impacts of a Brexit on the world economy.

In times like this, investors must look through market ‘noise’ to focus on the underlying business model of a company. Whilst one-off events can impact future earnings, long-term investors must be brave and buy quality companies when an opportunity presents itself.

I believe Ardent Leisure Group (ASX: AAD) is one such opportunity.

Why Ardent Leisure?

Ardent Leisure operates leisure and entertainment assets, owning Dreamworld and WhiteWater World theme parks in Queensland as well as a host of family entertainment centres in Australia and America (Kingpin, AMF and Main Event).

Ardent is in the business of providing entertainment, meaning its portfolio is leveraged to tourism and discretionary spend. The group also owns licences to operate Goodlife Health Clubs in Australia, leaving it vulnerable to rises and falls in consumer confidence.

Brexit impact

For Australia (and most of the world), a positive vote for Britain to leave the EU should not drastically impact the global economy, in my opinion. Indeed, trade between European nations and Britain may become more difficult, and immigration rules between Europe and the UK may become stricter, but these should not have long-term effects on the British or European economies.

Instead, I believe a bigger impact from a Brexit will be the short-term hit to consumer confidence. The uncertainty associated with a Brexit means consumers (and businesses) may become weary about spending, creating a short-term drag on the economy.

Long-term view

Any short-term impact to consumer confidence could hurt Ardent Leisure, given its reliance on discretionary spend. Nevertheless, I believe the circa 10% pullback in share price since last Tuesday compensates investors for this risk implying its downside is priced in.

On a long-term view, Ardent’s business model appears intact given its growth profile in the U.S. and active recycling of current assets (such as management’s decision to sell the d”Albora Marinas portfolio). With its first-half of 2016 already delivering double digit revenue growth (of 16.8%), I expect earnings to follow upwards, despite short-term obstacles.

Cherry on top

Given the group is due to trade ex-distribution towards the end of June, investors can acquire Ardent on a trailing yield of 6.2% per annum. Over the next 13 months, its yield jumps to 8.9% as investors benefit from three distributions over this time (if the past is anything to go by), providing a robust income stream to the patient investor.

Foolish takeaway

For Ardent Leisure, I believe the impact of a Brexit is unlikely to affect long-term earnings, making the current pullback and upcoming distribution a great time to purchase a top-quality company.

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Motley Fool contributor Rachit Dudhwala has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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