I've got some bad news…
The Australian stock market is at six-year highs.
Meaning those companies included in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) (INDEXASX: XJO) are now more expensive than they were before, and investors like you and I, need to be more careful not to overpay for Australia's biggest blue-chip stocks.
For example, I believe supermarket giant Woolworths Limited (ASX: WOW) currently trades for more than fair value. I probably won't make me any friends by saying it but, as Motley Fool writer Tim McArthur alluded to, investors need to look past the company's fantastic track record and focus on the probability it'll be able grow at the same rates in the future.
Another example of a great Australian company kicking too many goals for shareholders is Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS). I think Telstra will prove to be a fantastic stock to hold over the next decade but, whilst I do not believe it is overpriced at current levels, it is not a buy. Investors should wait for a lower entry point or consider other alternative ASX dividend stocks (more on that below).
National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB) and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) are two Australian banking giants whose stock prices could trend higher over time, as investors go in search of a fully franked dividend yield to combat low (and possibly falling) interest rates.
However NAB's profits continue to be dragged down by its troubled UK exposure and whilst it may surprise the market with higher cash earnings this year (as a result of falling provisions for bad and doubtful debts), I believe there will be more pain to come in the short to medium term for NAB shareholders. In addition, for long-term investors, Westpac shares are simply too expensive to justify a 'Buy' rating.
Here's what you should BUY today
Given the choice, I'd much rather write to you about a great buy idea than say a company isn't worthy of your money but, unfortunately, no stock is a buy at any price.
I'm not adding any of these stocks to my long-term portfolio right now, however I remain hopeful I'll get the chance to add them to it in the future. As Warren Buffett says: "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful".