The share price of newly-listed Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) has dropped to another new low of $1.46 during trading today. This came despite a research note being released by global investment bank Canaccord Genuity revealing it had initiated coverage on the online retailer with a buy rating and a $2.16 price target.
Today's drop means the shares are trading around 19% lower than their $1.80 IPO price, which I believe could make for an attractive entry point for a long-term investment.
According to its prospectus, Kogan is expecting sales growth of 20% in FY 2017 to $241 million. On the bottom line this will mean net profit after tax of $2.5 million. By these measures it is clear to see that its profit margin is incredibly thin at present, but thankfully management is focused on expanding its highest-margin product ranges.
One key thing that the prospectus forecast does not include is the acquisition of Dick Smith's online assets, which I believe could provide Kogan with significant growth potential.
Not only does it give Kogan a well-known brand and a strong position in Google search results alongside rivals Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN) and JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH). But it also gives the company 1.5 million active subscribers, of which 1.3 million were not previously members of Kogan.com's customer database. This deal brings total company-wide active subscribers to a huge 3.6 million, which will no doubt prove to be an invaluable marketing tool.
Kogan intends on operating Dick Smith's website as a separate channel, and to leverage common underlying technological infrastructure and a shared supply chain.
Whilst Dick Smith may have been unable to make its online store profitable, I feel confident Kogan is a company that can. Because of this I fully expect the company to perform well beyond its prospectus forecasts.
Although I think that Kogan represents a reasonable long-term investment at the current price, I do feel investors should keep a close eye on US retail giant Amazon. There has been speculation that Amazon will open a full Australian online store for some time, but nothing has ever eventuated. If it does finally arrive on Australian soil then Kogan could be one of the companies which is negatively impacted.
