Is the party over for the shares of Blackmores Limited and Bellamy’s Australia Ltd?

Credit: Blackmores

Last week the share price of leading vitamin and health supplement manufacturer Blackmores Limited (ASX: BKL) slumped nearly 13% to close Friday’s trading session at $158.69.

It was also a disappointing week for shareholders in infant formula marketer Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL), which fell just over 11% to close at $10.36.

In comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 (Index: ^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) managed to eke out a weekly gain of 0.6%.

While Blackmores and Bellamy’s are two businesses which are undoubtedly enjoying tailwinds – thanks in no small part to fast growing demand from Chinese customers – it’s possible that the market is starting to question whether these positive outlooks are already more than fully reflected in the current share prices of these two market darlings.

Indeed, the share prices of Blackmores and Bellamy’s Australia are 115% and 202% higher respectively over the past year.

Based on data supplied by Reuters, the average estimates of analysts covering Blackmores suggests earnings per share (EPS) are set to rocket from a forecast 600 cents per share (cps) in financial year (FY) 2016 to 731 cps in FY 2017.

Based on the above FY 2017 consensus forecast, Blackmores is trading on a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of around 22 times. Arguably that is a reasonable multiple which reflects the increased competition that Blackmores will undoubtedly face.

Similarly, the EPS growth of Bellamy’s is expected to be spectacular with consensus forecasts showing a jump from 38 cps in FY 2016 to 66 cps in FY 2017.

Based on the FY 2017 forecast, Bellamy’s is trading on a PE of approximately 16 times. This multiple would appear to suggest that the market is taking quite a dim view as to the sustainability of Bellamy’s above average growth rates.

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Motley Fool contributor Tim McArthur has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Bellamy's Australia. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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