If you're a regular reader at fool.com.au, you'll know that Foolish contributors have repeatedly warned investors away from two businesses: airlines, and banks.
We're not prejudiced; if a company has a great business model we're usually pretty happy to jump on board.
In fact, The Motley Fool's Top Dividend stock for 2015 is a player in the beaten-down retail sector – but more on that later.
The thing is, TMF's top dividend stock pick is a sustainable business with great margins and potential to grow earnings and dividends in the years ahead, compounding to deliver ever-greater rewards to shareholders.
Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) is simply not in the same league.
As a result of its cut-throat competition with Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VAH), Qantas has failed to deliver real returns to shareholders for a long time.
In the last ten years, Qantas shares have returned just 3%, excluding dividends, which the company hasn't paid since 2008 anyway.
In addition to heavy competition and the Australian market looking oversupplied, Qantas faces a number of structural challenges including tiny return on equity and massive debt.
While recent positive announcements and a huge cost-saving drive have pumped the share price to its highest point in over five years, I don't believe that Qantas has a bright future ahead of it.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is in a better situation, with a great track record of growing profits and lifting dividends.
A low interest rate market has helped, both by increasing the number of loans CBA makes and driving investor demand for its shares.
Not surprisingly, profits and share prices have soared – in fact, Commonwealth Bank has returned 55% in five years, and that's before dividends.
There are a number of reasons why that might not continue however – share prices are at eye-watering levels, competition for bank customers is heating up, bad debt charges are expected to rise, and there are better opportunities out there.
Competition in particular should be a big concern, with Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and Australian and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) each aiming to lure the lion's share of the customers.
In addition a number of non-bank lenders like Yellow Brick Road Holdings Ltd (ASX: YBR) are entering the market – successfully, I might add – with the aim of disrupting bank dominance.
Finally a large chunk of loans rest on inflated property values – with investment borrowers far outstripping the number of first home buyers – and either a collapse in house prices or rising interest rates could trigger a hefty increase in bad debt charges.
It's rare for Foolish contributors to advocate selling shares, because what we're all about is buying and holding – ideally forever.
However with both Commonwealth Bank and Qantas trading at their highest point in a long time, investors should consider taking some money off the table and channeling it into a better idea – like The Motley Fool's Top Dividend Stock for 2015.
