"I have no idea"

Think you know the answers? That might be costly

a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

In his book The Quest of the Simple Life, William Dawson tells the story of an exam at a 19th century London prep school. One question asked was, "Give some account of the life of Mary, the mother of our Lord."

Dawson wrote, "One bright youth responded, 'At this point it may not be out of place to give a list of the kings of Israel.'"

This was a common problem at prep schools. Students were not trained to think. They were taught to recite specific facts and formulas. Anything requiring creative thinking left them dumbfounded. To them, there was basically no world outside of the facts they had memorised. Faced with any question, they responded, often absurdly, with the only facts they knew, Dawson wrote.

Too smart to succeed

I had dinner earlier this week with the portfolio manager of an endowment fund. We talked about a problem in finance: Some of the smartest people we know are abysmally bad investors. Not just average, but abjectly terrible.

We agreed that the cause of this quirk was the same problem faced by 19th century prep-schoolers.

The smartest people we know are geniuses at fields where you can memorise facts and formulas. But any problem requiring squishier, creative thinking is unchartered territory. When faced with these problems, they inject the only thing they know: the facts and formulas they were taught to memorise.

These people are textbook geniuses, but they don't know the limits of their intelligence. Or even the context of their intelligence. And that's just as bad as being stupid.

There are economists — very smart ones — who said there was a 100% chance we'd have a recession in 2011. There are brilliant investors who have been certain since 2009 that the market is inches away from collapse.

They made these predictions because they are trained maths geniuses who created statistical models showing that these events were certain to occur.

When the formulas don't fit

But there is an infinite amount of stuff in finance that can't be answered with maths, facts, or formulas. There are things we can't measure, and things we can't understand, ever. Herd behaviour, future trivia, and psychology aren't things we can predict today. It's just insanity and chaos.

That's not acceptable to you if you've been trained to measure things with facts and formulas. Just like the prep school student, there is no world outside of the facts you've been trained to memorise. So you try to predict human behaviour with standard deviation, or the decisions of a despotic dictator with a bell curve. And you fail, virtually every time.

Realising the limits of your intelligence one of the most important skills in finance. P.J. O'Rourke described economics as "an entire scientific discipline of not knowing what you're talking about," which is pretty accurate. When you pretend you know something you don't, your perception of risk becomes warped. You take risks you didn't think existed. You face events you didn't think could occur. Understanding what you don't know, and what you can't know, is way more important than the stuff you actually know.

Foolish takeaway

In that sense, the four most important words in investing are probably, "I have no idea."

I have no idea what the market will do next.

I have no idea if we'll have a recession this year.

I have no idea when interest rates will rise.

I have no idea what the RBA will do next.

Neither do you.

The sooner you admit that, the better.

Morgan Housel is a Motley Fool columnist. You can follow The Motley Fool on Twitter @TheMotleyFoolAu. The Motley Fool's purpose is to educate, amuse and enrich investors. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on ⏸️ Investing

Close up of baby looking puzzled
Retail Shares

What has happened to the Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN) share price this year?

It's been a volatile year so far for the Aussie nursery retailer. We take a closer look

Read more »

woman holds sign saying 'we need change' at climate change protest
ETFs

3 ASX ETFs that invest in companies fighting climate change

If you want to shift some of your investments into more ethical companies, exchange-traded funds can offer a good option

Read more »

a jewellery store attendant stands at a cabinet displaying opulent necklaces and earrings featuring diamonds and precious stones.
⏸️ Investing

The Michael Hill (ASX: MHJ) share price poised for growth

Investors will be keeping an eye on the Michael Hill International Limited (ASX: MHJ) share price today. The keen interest…

Read more »

ASX shares buy unstoppable asx share price represented by man in superman cape pointing skyward
⏸️ Investing

The Atomos (ASX:AMS) share price is up 15% in a week

The Atomos (ASX: AMS) share price has surged 15% this week. Let's look at what's ahead as the company build…

Read more »

Two people in suits arm wrestle on a black and white chess board.
Retail Shares

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) share price stack up against Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)?

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) share price stack up against rival furniture retailer Nick Scali Limited (ASX:…

Read more »

A medical researcher works on a bichip, indicating share price movement in ASX tech companies
Healthcare Shares

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since its IPO

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since the Polynovo (ASX: PNV) competitor listed on the ASX in July.…

Read more »

asx investor daydreaming about US shares
⏸️ How to Invest

How to buy US shares from Australia right now

If you have been wondering how to buy US shares from Australia to gain exposure from the highly topical market,…

Read more »

⏸️ Investing

Why Fox (NASDAQ:FOX) might hurt News Corp (ASX:NWS) shareholders

News Corporation (ASX: NWS) might be facing some existential threats from its American cousins over the riots on 6 January

Read more »